Weak Asian Oil Imports Challenge Claims of Surge in Hormuz Transits

Asia is expected to welcome roughly the same volumes of crude oil this month as it did in July, with these still weak imports not signaling a surge in tanker crossings at the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S. Administration claims.

Asia, the biggest and most prized oil market for oil exporters, is set to import 23.12 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil this month, slightly down from 23.36 million bpd in July, per data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler and cited by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell.

Sure, tankers need time to move the crude from the Middle East to Asia, but none of the preliminary import figures for August suggest that flows to Asia have rebounded due to a return to near-pre-war levels, as the U.S. has recently claimed.

In the middle of August, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that the oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded to 15 million bpd and even topped the pre-war average of 20 million bpd on some days.

At the time, ship-tracking data shows oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz are, at best, half the volume cited by Secretary Wright.

Asia’s imports form the Middle East inched up to 11.11 million bpd in August from 10.76 million bpd in July, but some of this may be the result of the brief ceasefire between the middle of June and the beginning of July, when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was open and vessels raced to exit the chokepoint laden with crude after sitting for weeks and months inside the Persian Gulf.

Still, Asia’s crude oil imports from the Middle East remain over 4 million bpd lower compared to the average of 15.82 million bpd in the three months before the Iran war started.

Clearer signs of increased Hormuz oil flows could be seen in the September and October imports of the Asian countries if crude exports from the Strait have indeed rebounded.  

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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