Michael King’s home and night game dominance makes Padres the smart pick over struggling Pirates

It was a bit of a mixed bag yesterday for results. I had four plays in one game, which is something of a rarity for me. However, I went 3-1 in that game, and I lost the other game. For me, it was a slight profit for the day, but that’s because I tend to bet less on player props than I do on full game totals or sides. We go back to the grind today with the matchup between the Pirates and the Padres.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are essentially repeating what they did last year in terms of record. The problem is that the team is not progressing. Last year, the team lost 91 games. It does seem like they will be closer to .500 this year, but coming into this game, they are five games under. They are fourth in their division and 18 games back of first place. If they can get hot before the end of the year, maybe they can make a push for the Wild Card, but they are 7.5 games back of that and have four teams in front of them for the final spot. Even though their hitting has improved, the pitching staff has struggled.

Paul Skenes #30 of the Pittsburgh Pirates throws a pitch against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on May 17, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. (Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images)

No one has been a bigger surprise struggle this season than today’s starter, Paul Skenes. For the year, Skenes is 9-11 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. The WHIP is obviously pretty good, but that ERA is far higher than at any point in his short career. He does have 171 strikeouts, so he is still mowing down hitters. It is hard to say exactly what the issue is; he has 41 walks allowed in 139.0 innings this season compared to 42 in 187.2 innings last year, so maybe control is the problem. He has been very good in limited experience against the Padres, holding them to three hits in 24 at-bats.

The San Diego Padres are currently the owners of the last spot in the Wild Card race. With just about a month left, they have to put their foot on the gas pedal and secure that spot. They have run their record to ten games above .500, and this is also reminiscent of last season. They made it to the playoffs via a Wild Card spot last year, and it came after some hot play after the All-Star Break. Last year they started the 2nd half eight games above .500; this year they were at exactly even. Now they are 10 games over.

San Diego Padres pitcher Michael King delivers a pitch against the New York Mets during the third inning at Citi Field in New York City on Aug. 19, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

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Today they send out Michael King to the hill in hopes that he can give them another victory and put more distance to those teams looking up at them. King has an 8-9 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He has also been strong with his punchouts, sitting at 41st in the Majors with 128 strikeouts. He’s been very good in home starts and night games. In the night games specifically, he has a 2.81 ERA over 93 innings this year. King has held Pirates hitters to just a .250 average over 40 at-bats.

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Michael King delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio, on Aug. 14, 2026. (IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect)

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The one guy I see today for a potential player prop is Brandon Lowe. He is just 2-for-13 against King with five strikeouts. I’m not sure I’d feel overly confident in him not getting a hit today, but it is at least an option. For the game, though, we should feel confident backing King here. Skenes is not the Skenes we’ve seen the past two seasons. King has thrown very well at home and at night. I also trust the Padres bullpen more than the Pirates. Give me the Padres here.

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