ASX 200 Live Today – Thursday, 27th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, August 27. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We’ll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we’ve got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

New updates

Aurelia beats on earnings and declares its first dividend

[9:32 am] Aurelia’s FY26 came in ahead on revenue and well ahead on profit, with strong metal prices lifting margins enough to fund a maiden fully franked dividend the market had not modelled.

Note: Macquarie is pretty much the only major broker that covers Aurelia, the below ests refer to their forecasts and not consensus

• Total revenue up 40% to $480.2m vs $469m ests (2% beat)

• EBITDA up 55% to $189.2m vs $174m ests (9% beat)

• Net profit after tax up 69% to $82.7m vs $60m ests (38% beat)

• Operating cash flow up 10% to $142.8m vs $166m ests (14% miss)

• Fully franked final dividend of 1.0cps totalling about $17.2m, against nil in ests

• Cash of $143.9m with no drawn debt following completion of the balance sheet refinance

• FY27 guidance of 50–60koz gold, 2.5–3.5kt copper, 26–34kt zinc and 17–25kt lead, with the gold, zinc and lead midpoints all sitting above ests and copper in line

• FY27 cost guidance of $340–375m operating, $65–75m sustaining capital, $50–70m growth capital and $14–18m exploration, with the $357.5m operating midpoint running about 11% above ests

Company page: Aurelia Metals (AMI)

Appen swings to positive EBITDA as China more than doubles its contribution

[9:29 am] Appen’s first half turned on China, where revenue jumped 80% and EBITDA quadrupled, while the Global business kept shrinking as it works through its turnaround.

Note: no broker estimates are available for Appen, so no beat/miss comparisons are shown. Figures are in US dollars unless stated.

• Group revenue up 17% to US$119.9m

• Appen China revenue up 80% to US$76.2m, with an annualised run rate above US$175m exiting June

• Appen Global revenue down 27% to US$43.7m, though Q2 was up 20% on Q1 and up 65% excluding the largest client

• Underlying EBITDA before FX of US$5.3m, a US$7.5m improvement on the prior corresponding period

• Appen China underlying EBITDA before FX up 316% to US$12.1m, against an Appen Global loss of US$4.5m, itself 25% narrower

• Cash of US$44.7m (A$64.8m) at 30 June, with no dividend mentioned

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed at revenue of US$270–300m and underlying EBITDA before FX margin of roughly 5–10%

Company page: Appen (APX)

Qantas absorbs a $610m fuel hit and still beats on underlying earnings

[9:27 am] Qantas delivered a lower result on every headline earnings line as jet fuel costs surged through the second half, though unit revenue ran well ahead of what the market had assumed.

Note: Ests refer to Morgan Stanley forecasts rather than consensus.

• Group RASK up 4.6% against 2% ests, with TRASK up 3.6%, so the revenue quality was materially better than modelled

• Total fuel cost hit $5.7bn including a $610m second-half impact, with Brent hedging worth $400m and jet refining margins spiking from US$20 a barrel in February to a peak near US$120

• Group Domestic underlying EBIT of $1.44bn with Qantas Domestic revenue up 5% on 3% more capacity, and Jetstar Domestic earnings up 15% on 11% revenue growth

• Group International underlying EBIT of $650m, with Qantas International revenue up 8% and premium cabin revenue up 15%, twice the rate of Economy

• Qantas Loyalty underlying EBIT up 12% to $625m, with points earned and redeemed both up 9% and a record 5 million flight Reward Seats

• Underlying profit before tax down 13.8% to $2,064m vs $1,968m ests (5% beat)

• Underlying EPS down 12.7% to 96cps vs 91cps ests (5% beat)

• Final fully franked base dividend of $300m (19.8cps) takes the FY26 total to 39.6cps vs 36cps ests (10% beat), though the $150m buyback flagged at the half will not proceed

• Net debt up to $6.2bn, mid-range against the $5.5–6.9bn target, with net capex of $4.0bn and liquidity of $13.3bn

• FY27 guidance is for Group Domestic and Group International TRASK both up 8–10% in 1H27, Loyalty underlying EBIT growth of 5–7%, net capex of $4.3–4.6bn, 1H27 fuel of about $3.6bn and around $475m of transformation

Company page: Qantas Airways (QAN)

Perpetual lifts UPAT 6% and beats on earnings despite softer revenue

[9:23 am] Perpetual’s FY26 result came in ahead on underlying profit and the dividend, with Corporate Trust and the cost-out program offsetting a currency-affected Asset Management top line.

Note: estimates refer to Macquarie forecasts rather than consensus.

• Operating revenue flat at $1,374.2m vs $1,388m ests (1% miss)

• Corporate Trust FUA up 6% to $1,349.3bn and Digital and Markets AUA up 14% to $638.6bn, while Wealth Management FUA rose 3% to $22.1bn

• UPBT up 6% to $295.8m vs $282m ests (5% beat),

  • Corporate Trust UPBT up 9% to $98.8m vs $96.7m ests (2% beat)

  • Asset Management UPBT up 3% to $207.5m and Wealth Management down 15% to $44.0m, with no like-for-like segment ests available on the same basis

• UPAT up 6% to $217.0m vs $209m ests (4% beat)

• Statutory NPAT of $88.9m against a $58.2m loss, well short of the $215m ests, which did not carry the $63.5m non-cash TSW goodwill impairment inside the $128.1m of post-tax significant items

• Final unfranked dividend of 63cps takes the FY26 total to 122cps vs 109.5cps ests (11% beat), a 65% payout of UPAT

Company page: Perpetual (PPT)

Bapcor clears the top of EBITDA guidance but books a $431.6m statutory loss

[9:18 am] Bapcor’s reset year ended with underlying EBITDA above the upper end of its May guidance and net debt cut sharply, though non-cash impairments dominated the statutory line and no dividend was declared.

• Underlying revenue down 1.8% to $1,924.1m vs $1,925m ests (in line)

• Underlying EBITDA down 34.6% to $152.5m vs $147m ests (4% beat), exceeding the top of the May 2026 guidance range

• Underlying NPAT down 85.0% to $10.8m vs $10m ests (8% beat)

• Statutory loss of $431.6m, against a restated $19.1m profit, including $442.4m of post-tax significant items that are primarily non-cash impairments, so the statutory and underlying lines are not comparable

• No final dividend declared, with cash preserved for the turnaround, in line with ests of nil

• Net debt down $229.8m to $135.0m, a 63.0% reduction, helped by the $200m February equity raising, with net leverage at 1.72x adjusted EBITDA against a 3.5x covenant

• Working capital initiatives delivered $68.5m of cash flow in 2H26, within the $60–75m guided range, lifting cash conversion to 109.4% from 86.5%

• FY27 guidance is for modest revenue growth with underlying NPAT materially weighted to the second half, capex and D&A in line with FY26, and turnaround benefits largely reinvested in technology and people

Company page: Bapcor (BAP)

IGO returns to profit with $145m NPAT and reinstates dividend at 5c

[9:15 am] IGO swung to a $145 million full year profit from a $955 million loss in FY25. No consensus numbers here so just comparisons vs. FY25.

• Revenue of $463m down 12%, with the earnings turnaround driven by TLEA equity accounting and the absence of FY25 impairments rather than the top line

• Reported EBITDA of $323m from a $709m loss, with underlying EBITDA of $286m from a $43m loss

• Group NPAT of $145m against a $955m loss in FY25, driven by a $207m share of TLEA net profit versus a $642m share of losses

• Underlying NPAT of $109m against a $173m underlying loss

• Final fully franked dividend of 5 cps, about 30% of underlying free cash flow

• Greenbushes produced 1.41Mt of spodumene, down 5%, at a cash cost of $415/t, up 28%

• Kwinana lithium hydroxide production of 8,839t up 30% with conversion costs down 19% to $18,379/t

• FY27 Greenbushes guidance of 1,550-1,750kt spodumene, up 17% at the midpoint, at a cash cost of $380-440/t and capex of $250-300m

• FY27 Kwinana guidance of 9,000-11,000t lithium hydroxide, up 13% at the midpoint, with conversion costs of $16,000-18,000/t

Company page: IGO (IGO)

Ai-Media lifts ARR 50% to $36m and beats Morgans on revenue, but group sales fall 7%

[9:14 am] Ai-Media posted FY26 revenue of $60.2m, 9% ahead of Morgans, though the wind-down of legacy services left group revenue down 7% and full year EBITDA at a small loss.

• ARR up 50% to $36.0m at an 85% gross margin, meeting guidance but implying only $6m of additions in 2H26 after ARR reached $30m at the half

• Revenue down 7% to $60.2m vs $55.0m Morgans ests (9% beat), on the planned reduction in legacy services and lower hardware sales

• SaaS revenue up 42% to $34.1m, with technology revenue up 9% to $44.8m and now 74% of group revenue from 63% in FY25

• Gross profit of ~$44m vs $39.9m Morgans ests (10% beat), at a 73% group margin up 4ppts from 69%

• Full year EBITDA loss of $0.3m vs a $0.3m loss Morgans ests (in line), with adjusted EBITDA of $2.1m before share-based payments and restructuring

• Operating cash flow of $2.4m with year-end cash of $15.9m and no external debt

• All top 20 customers retained for a fifth consecutive year, with the footprint expanded to 46 countries after adding 9 markets in FY26

• No FY27 ARR guidance until the AGM on 30 September

Company page: Ai-Media Technologies (AIM)

Wesfarmers delivers a clean in-line result with Bunnings and Kmart carrying the load

[9:11 am] Wesfarmers landed FY26 close to expectations across the board, with retail operating leverage offsetting a WesCEF earnings hit from Middle East-driven ammonia pricing.

• Revenue up 3.4% to $47,274m vs $47,246m ests (in line)

• EBIT (ex-items) up 7.3% to $4,493m vs $4,442m ests (1% beat), with reported EBIT up 0.6%

• NPAT (ex-items) up 8.3% to $2,874m vs $2,833m ests (1% beat)

• Operating cash flow down 6.5% to $4,272m on deliberate working capital investment in WesCEF spodumene and fertiliser inventory and Health contingency stock, with retail cash realisation at 99%

• Final fully franked dividend of 120cps takes the full-year payout to 222cps vs 219.2cps ests (1% beat), up 7.8%, on top of the $1.50 per share capital management distribution paid in December totalling $1,703m

• FY27 net capex guided to $1,300–1,500m including about $200m on the Mt Holland mine and concentrator expansion, with borrowing costs expected to be higher on increased net debt and cost of funds

• Mt Holland spodumene production guided to nameplate of roughly 380kt in FY27 (WesCEF share about 190kt) after FY26 production of 209kt beat both guidance and nameplate, though refinery ramp-up was hampered by intermittent odour issues

• On current trading through the first seven weeks of FY27, Bunnings sales growth was slightly stronger than 2H26 helped by dry July weather, Kmart Group was in line, and Officeworks stayed positive but slightly below. Blackwoods and Workwear Group moved into Bunnings from 1 July 2026.

Company page: Wesfarmers (WES)

Jumbo posts record EBITDA as Dream acquisitions carry the result

[9:10 am] Jumbo’s first year owning the Dream Giveaways businesses delivered its highest ever EBITDA, masking a 10% decline in Australian earnings against a much weaker jackpot backdrop.

Note: estimates are from Macquarie rather than consensus.

• TTV up 13.0% to $1,125.8m, with revenue margin up 2.6ppts to 17.2%

  • Lottery Retailing TTV down 8.2% against just 23 large jackpots and no $100m-plus draws, versus 31 and four respectively in FY25

  • SaaS TTV up 15.1%, or up 18.6% excluding Lotterywest, with revenue up 20.1% on that same basis

• Revenue up 33.2% to $193.6m vs $201m ests (4% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA up 24.8% to $85.2m vs $84m ests (1% beat), with margin down 3.8ppts to 43.2%

  • Australia underlying EBITDA down 10.1% to $55.0m vs $54m ests (2% beat), at a 47.7% margin

  • Managed Services EBITDA up 18.1% to $8.4m vs $8m ests (5% beat), and Dream Giveaways contributing $21.8m vs $22m ests (in line) from a partial-year hold

• Underlying NPAT up 3.7% to $41.4m vs $41m ests (1% beat)

• Underlying NPATA up 19.5% to $50.6m vs $52m ests (3% miss), the gap to NPAT reflecting amortisation on the Dream acquisitions

• Final fully franked dividend of 15.0cps takes the full-year payout to 27.0cps vs 25.0cps ests (8% beat), a 49.5% payout under the revised 30–50% policy and down from 54.5cps in FY25

• FY27 guidance for Australia underlying EBITDA margin of 46–50% and international underlying EBITDA of $36–40m, the $38m midpoint implying 25% growth on FY26’s $30.3m

Company page: Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

Bubs grows revenue 9% as US expansion offsets weakness everywhere else

[9:07 am] Bubs lifted underlying earnings sharply in FY26, but airfreight, regulatory and tariff costs pushed reported EBITDA into the red and took 800bps out of gross margin.

Note: no broker estimates are available for Bubs, so no beat/miss comparisons are shown.

• Group revenue up 9.2% to $111.9m

  • US revenue up 24% to $65.8m with distribution now beyond 10,000 stores,

  • Australia fell 7% to $18.3m, ROW dropped 25% to $6.4m and China was flat at $21.4m

• Gross profit down 9.4% to $44.5m, with gross margin down 800bps to 39.8%

• Underlying EBITDA up 342% to $5.3m, excluding temporary airfreight ($3.0m), regulatory reset ($3.9m) and non-AU tariff ($1.0m) costs

• Reported EBITDA a loss of $1.8m, against a $5.2m profit in FY25, so the underlying and reported lines are not comparable

• Period end cash of $9.4m plus $10.0m of undrawn facilities, with the NAB facility extended to 31 August 2027

• H1 FY27 outlook is for positive revenue growth and a gross margin rebound, with regional performance still mixed and the FDA approval pathway described as on track

Company page: Bubs Australia (BUB)

ReadyTech lands inside revised guidance but FY27 outlook sits below ests

[9:04 am] ReadyTech finished FY26 within its downgraded revenue range, with flagship product growth swamped by churn in the mature base and a cash margin management insists has now bottomed.

• Revenue up 3% to $125.0m vs $125.5m ests (in line), landing at the bottom of the revised $125–127m range

  • Education and Work Pathways revenue slipped to $43.1m from $43.5m on lower services and implementation revenue, Workforce grew 10.4% to $38.1m, and Government and Justice was broadly stable at $43.8m though segment margin fell to 22.9% from 27.5%

  • Mature products accounted for roughly 67% of FY26 dollar churn, while flagship subscription revenue compounded at a 13.2% three-year CAGR led by Ready Workforce at 25.4%

• Subscription revenue of $103.8m, representing 83% of total revenue as recurring

• Underlying EBITDA down 11% to $35.0m vs $36.2m ests (3% miss), with margin down to 28.1% from 32.5%

• Underlying cash EBITDA of $15.8m at a 12.6% margin, down from 16.0% and consistent with the guided low-teens range

• FY27 revenue guidance of $128–132m, with the $130m midpoint about 2% below ests, and cash EBITDA margin guided to 15–17%

Company page: ReadyTech Holdings (RDY)

VEEM lands at the top of guidance with revenue down 25%, but 2H defence work drives EBITDA swing

[9:03 am] VEEM delivered FY26 revenue and EBITDA both at the upper end of guidance, with second half earnings swinging $4.0 million on ASC submarine refit deliveries and a recovery in propeller orders.

• Revenue down 25% to $51.7m vs $51.5m ests (in line), at the top of $50m to $52m guidance

  • Defence revenue up 130% to $8.6m in 2H26 from $3.7m in 1H26, with ASC deliveries expected to stay strong into 1H27

  • Gyro revenue down $9.5m on no sales at all in 1H26, with the order book at just $1.0m following the Mark III launch

  • Engineering products and services revenue down 14% to $14.3m as defence took a greater share of capacity in 2H26

• EBITDA of $3.6m vs $3.0m ests (21% beat), at the top of $3.25m to $3.75m guidance

• Second half revenue of $28.3m up 21% on 1H26, with 2H EBITDA of $3.8m swinging $4.0m from a first half loss

• EPS of -12.40c vs 1.5c ests, from 2.22c in FY25

• Operating cash flow up 64% to $4.8m on higher defence revenue and accelerating ASC deliveries

• Net debt down $12.5m to $1.2m after a $13.1m net capital raise, with $7.1m of undrawn overdraft and trade facilities

• Hunter Class Frigate demonstrator specifications received from BAE Systems Australia, with successful completion qualifying VEEM as one of only two suppliers globally and progressing it to final tender

• No FY27 guidance provided, with the focus shifting to commercialising the VEEM Extreme range and Mark III gyro

Company page: VEEM (VEE)

MinRes reinstates dividend as underlying NPAT soars 831%

[9:00 am] Mineral Resources delivered the strongest result in its 20 years as a listed company and issued a fully franked 83 cps dividend declared against UBS forecasts of no payout.

• Revenue up 44% to $6.5bn on record volumes across all divisions and higher commodity prices

• Underlying EBITDA up 183% to $2.6bn at a 39% margin, a record

  • Mining Services underlying EBITDA a record $976m on 341Mt of production volumes

  • Onslow Iron shipped 19.7Mt at a $52/t FOB cost for $909m of underlying EBITDA, with the Pilbara Hub adding 9.9Mt at $79/t for $98m

  • Lithium contributed $771m of underlying EBITDA, with Wodgina at 317k dmt SC6 for $470m and Mt Marion 242k dmt SC6 for $302m

• Underlying NPAT up 831% to $822m vs $743m UBS (11% beat)

• Reported NPAT up 236% to $1.2bn, including a $168m non-cash FX gain, a $134m gain on MSIP contingent consideration and a $69m Lucky Bay garnet impairment

• Fully franked full year dividend of 83 cps vs nil UBS, a 20% payout of underlying NPAT and up from nil in FY25

• Net debt down $1.1bn to $4.3bn vs $4,283m UBS (in line), with leverage at 1.7x from 5.9x and liquidity doubling to $2.4bn

• POSCO sell-down of US$765m would take net debt to ~$3.2bn or ~1.2x on completion in 1H27, against UBS of $2.7bn at FY27 year end

• FY27 Mining Services volumes guided to 370-390Mt, up 11% at the midpoint, on total capex of $1.4bn versus $1.2bn

Company page: MinRes (MIN)

Atlas Arteria posts a statutory loss on takeover and put option costs

[8:57 am] Atlas Arteria’s headline number went red on one-off costs tied to the IFM takeover and the Chicago Skyway put option, while a weaker currency dragged on translated toll revenue.

• Statutory net loss after tax of $73.3m, against a $73.3m net profit in the prior corresponding period

• Underlying net profit after tax up 29% to $94.3m, excluding non-operating costs from the put option extinguishment and the takeover offer

• Proportional toll revenue down 3.9% on unfavourable FX, though up 0.6% on an underlying basis excluding currency

• Proportional EBITDA down 3.6%, with margin up to 76.6% from 76.4%

• Interim distribution of 20.0cps in line with ests, with 2026 guidance reaffirmed at 40.0cps and the 90–110% of free cash flow payout policy retained

• Chicago Skyway put option held by OTPP extinguished for US$100m, settled in August and funded through a new corporate debt facility

• IFM’s relevant interest lifted from 34.5% to 67.4% following the unsolicited takeover offer

Company page: Atlas Arteria (ALX)

Smartgroup beats on revenue as EV demand pulls novated leasing higher

[8:56 am] Smartgroup’s first half was driven by an EV order surge that management concedes was partly brought forward, with revenue running ahead of expectations while earnings landed close to them.

Note: Below estimates refer to Morgans ests, not consensus.

• Revenue up 13% to $179.5m vs $172.5m ests (4% beat)

• Operating expenses up 12% to $100.6m

• Operating EBITDA up 16% to $73.8m vs $73.4m ests (in line), with margin up 1ppt to 41%

• NPATA up 11% to $42.4m vs $42.1m ests (in line), with statutory NPAT also $42.4m

• Interim fully franked dividend up 10% to 21.5cps vs 20.0cps ests (8% beat), a 70% payout of NPATA

• Novated leasing settlements up 17% and new lease vehicle orders up 34%, with BEV orders up 162% and accounting for 68% of new orders against 27% for ICE

• Fleet vehicles under management up 12% to 36,200 and active packaging customers up 34,000 to 518,000, with direct leasing yield up 2%

• FY27 EBITDA margin target reaffirmed in the mid-40s range, with CY26 capex guided to $13–15m and net debt at just 0.2x EBITDA

Company page: Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ)

Interesting comments from Nvidia management

[8:51 am] Management talk the durability of the demand cycle while flagging that supply and input costs, not orders, are the binding constraint.

• On the FY28 outlook: “We expect to grow revenue by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028. This is a supply-constrained outlook”

• On what demand would look like without those constraints: “The unconstrained would be a lot higher”

• On memory costs: “We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory. The magnitude of the price increase has exceeded our prior expectations and is headed even higher into next year”

• On the roughly $50bn invested in frontier AI labs: “We recognise the scale of this support, and we know some will call this circular financing. We see it differently”

• On those customers: “These are once-in-a-generation companies. The technology leadership is proven and their customer traction and usage are skyrocketing. We expect them to become the largest technology companies in history”

• On OpenAI and Anthropic building their own chips: “I have 100% confidence that our technology will continue to be extraordinary for them, and they’re going to use it, so I’ve every confidence that they’re going to be customers of ours for a very long time”

• On the state of the technology: “We could say that we’ve already achieved AGI”

Nvidia beats across the board and guides Q3 above consensus

[8:50 am] Nvidia’s July quarter delivered a 4% revenue beat with data centre still compounding at triple-digit rates, and the Q3 guide came in ahead despite assuming nothing from China. The stock is up 4.3% after hours.

• Revenue up 106% to US$96.2bn vs US$92.2bn ests (4% beat)

• Data Center revenue up 117% to US$89.0bn vs US$85.8bn ests (4% beat)

• Edge Computing revenue up 27% to US$7.2bn vs US$6.61bn ests (9% beat)

• Adjusted gross margin of 75.0% vs 75% ests (in line), up 250bps year on year

• Adjusted operating income up 124% to US$64.0bn, with adjusted opex up 54% to US$8.2bn

• Adjusted net income up 118% to US$54.0bn and adjusted EPS up 120% to US$2.22 vs US$2.10 ests (6% beat)

• Free cash flow of US$21.3bn, with about US$26.0bn returned to shareholders in the quarter and roughly US$99.0bn left on the buyback authorisation

• Q3 revenue guidance of US$108.0bn plus or minus 2% vs US$104.2bn ests (4% beat), with adjusted gross margin guided to 74.0% plus or minus 50bps

CrowdStrike lifts FY27 outlook as net new ARR jumps 51%

[8:48 am] CrowdStrike beat on every line in the July quarter and raised full-year guidance, with the ARR reacceleration the standout after a soft patch through last year.

• Revenue up 26% to US$1.47bn vs US$1.44bn ests (2% beat)

• Adjusted EPS up 35% to US$0.31 vs US$0.29 ests (7% beat)

• Net new ARR up 51% to a record US$333m, taking total ARR up 25% to US$5.84bn

• Free cash flow up 33% to US$377.4m vs US$353m ests (7% beat), with net operating cash flow of US$530.3m

• Non-GAAP operating margin of 25%, with no comparable ests provided for the metric

• FY27 revenue guidance of US$5.99–6.01bn vs US$5.93bn ests (1% beat) and adjusted EPS of US$1.25–1.26 vs US$1.23 ests (2% beat), with ARR guided to US$6.60–6.61bn

• Q3 revenue guidance of US$1.52–1.53bn vs US$1.51bn ests (1% beat), with adjusted EPS of US$0.31 sitting in line

Crowdstrike is one of the main holdings in most cybersecurity-related ETFs (e.g. a 7.9% weight in the HACK ETF). The stock is up 9.8% after hours.

Core PCE lands in line and gives the Fed room to sit still

[8:45 am] July’s inflation print did nothing to force the Fed’s hand, but it also did nothing to bring inflation back towards target, leaving Friday’s Jackson Hole speech as the next real event risk.

• Core PCE rose 0.2% month on month and 3.3% year on year, matching expectations, while the headline gauge was up 3.7% year on year and still comfortably above the 2% goal

• Inflation-adjusted consumer spending was flat in July after strong May and June gains, with core goods outlays down 0.8% and services spending up 0.3%

• Treasury yields and the US dollar rose on the release

• The consumer looks less stretched than the spending line suggests, with real disposable income up 0.4% (the most since January) and the saving rate at a four-month high of 3%

Source: Bloomberg

Jackson Hole puts Warsh under pressure as hike bets build

[8:44 am] Two of the world’s biggest central banks are edging towards tighter policy at the same time, and markets are heading into Friday’s Jackson Hole speech with little guidance on how far the Fed is willing to go.

• Kevin Warsh delivers his first major speech as Fed chairman on Friday, with investors still without a clear read on how he intends to bring inflation back to 2%

• Treasury yields edged higher after a key US inflation gauge stayed well above target, sustaining expectations the Fed begins raising rates before year end

• The ECB is leaning the same way, with Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel telling Bloomberg further hikes are needed given inflation is projected to run above 2% for an extended period

Oil keeps falling on a Hormuz framework that is not yet a reopening

[8:43 am] Iran and Oman have outlined a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, and crude has sold off for a third straight session even though almost nothing has changed on the water.

• The proposed corridor would be seven miles wide, with the entry and part of the exit running through Iranian territorial waters, and would close the UN-authorised southern route hugging Oman’s coast that ships have been using under US naval protection

• Traffic data undercuts the optimism, with just five commodity vessels transiting the strait on Tuesday against a 10-day average of 15, versus roughly a fifth of global crude that moved through before the war

• The Revolutionary Guard says the strait stays shut until Washington accepts Tehran’s conditions under the collapsed June MoU, including sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets

• Demining is the harder constraint, with experts noting Iran’s mine capability is built for laying rather than clearing, and that reopening declarations alone will not restore shipping and insurance confidence

• The new US sanctions campaign covers 60-plus entities across digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, but Treasury has held off on secondary sanctions against Chinese banks, with Beijing, which buys around 90% of Iran’s crude, warning it will act to protect its interests

Good morning!

[8:25 am] ASX 200 futures are down 4 pts (-0.04%). Here’s what happened overnight:

• Major US benchmarks finished slightly lower, in a relatively narrow and rangebound session

  • S&P 500 (-0.02%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.15%), Nasdaq (-0.08%), Dow (-0.21%), Russell 2000 (-0.14%)

• Nvidia beat on every line and guided well above expectations, Q2 revenue up 106% year-on-year to US$96.2bn (x16 what it made four years ago) and guided to Q3 revenue of ~US$108bn, shares up approximately 4% after hours

• A December Fed hike is now fully priced after US core PCE rose 3.3% year-on-year in July, in-line with estimates but above the Fed’s 2% target for a 65th consecutive month