Bitcoin heads towards $80K: What could drive the next move?

Bitcoin is trading above 77.5k, up 1.2% over the past 24 hours and extending last week’s 20% rally, its strongest weekly performance in more than two years. 

The move has been driven by a combination of improving liquidity expectations, a lower regulatory risk premium, stronger institutional demand and a wave of short covering. 

However, with Bitcoin now approaching 80k, several key events this week could determine whether the rally has further to run. 

Why did Bitcoin jump 20%? 

Bitcoin surged 20% last week, helped by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement that the Treasury would increase purchases of longer-dated Treasuries. 

The move helped pull long-term yields lower and improved risk appetite, while also raising expectations of easier liquidity conditions. 

At the same time, U.S. government debt crossing $40 trillion added to concerns over the fiscal outlook and helped revive the so-called debasement trade, supporting alternative assets such as Bitcoin and gold. 

The regulatory backdrop also improved after President Trump renewed his push for clearer rules around digital assets, potentially making it easier for institutional investors to move into crypto. 

Institutional demand provided another tailwind. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.92 billion in net inflows last week, their strongest weekly inflows since early October. 

Together, these factors helped push Bitcoin higher, while short covering added fuel to the move. 

Key Bitcoin catalysts this week 

The question now is whether those drivers can continue to support Bitcoin above 77k and ultimately take it through 80k. 

Nvidia earnings will be important for broader risk sentiment, but the bigger macro test comes from U.S. core PCE on Wednesday, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Expectations are for the annual rate to remain at 3.3%. 

The data comes with markets pricing a 65% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in September. 

Then comes the week’s biggest potential catalyst: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. 

Warsh has provided limited forward guidance since taking the helm in May, leaving plenty of room for his comments to move markets. With the Fed’s next move still finely balanced, even a subtle shift in his language around inflation or interest rates could have a meaningful impact on yields, the dollar and Bitcoin. 

Crypto also has an additional variable that equities don’t: digital asset policy. 

Warsh’s appointment of a Bitcoin investor to co-lead a Fed task force means any comments around the Fed’s approach to digital assets could move Bitcoin independently of the wider rate debate. 

For Bitcoin, the setup is increasingly binary: cooler inflation and a cautious Warsh could keep liquidity expectations supportive and open the door to 80k. A hotter PCE reading or hawkish Fed message could send yields and the dollar higher, putting the rally under pressure. 

Bitcoin technical analysis 

After breaking above the 50 EMA and the falling trendline resistance, Bitcoin powered higher, pushing above the 200 EMA and rising to a peak of 79,460 before easing back slightly to consolidate above 77k at the time of writing, around the 78.6% fib retracement of the 82.8k high and 57.7k low. The RSI is still overbought, so consolidation could continue, or it could even move slightly lower.  

Buyers will look to head towards 80k, with a rise above 82.8k seen as significant to bringing 90k back into focus.  

On the downside, support can be seen at 73.4k, the 61.8% fib retracement, the 200 EMA at 71.6k, 70k (the round number), and the 50% fib retracement. A break below 67k, the 50 EMA, and the July high, as well as the 38.2% Fib retracement, negates the uptrend and turns the tension towards 63k, the mid-August low.