Prediction market traders now see little chance that Google releases its next flagship Gemini Pro artificial intelligence model before September, underlining a delay that has dragged on for most of the year.
On Polymarket, the largest betting exchange for real-world events, contracts give just a 2% chance of a release by 21 August and 10% by the end of the month, with the latter down 35 points.
The odds do not clear 50% until 30 September, priced at 47%, and reach 71% only by 31 October.
More than $1.1 million has been wagered on the market, making it one of the busier technology contracts on the platform.
The pessimism reflects a troubled development cycle for Gemini 3.5 Pro, the model most traders are watching.
Sundar Pichai, the Alphabet chief executive, told developers at Google’s I/O conference in May that the model would arrive within a month.
That deadline passed, as did a widely reported July target, in what has become the company’s third delay since June.
Google has instead shipped a series of cheaper, faster Gemini Flash models, releasing another version on 13 August without giving any date for the Pro edition.
Reports have pointed to persistent problems with coding performance and reliability, alongside the departure of senior researchers from its DeepMind AI unit.
The company is thought to have rebuilt the model from its foundations after it fell short of internal quality benchmarks.
Rivals have pressed their advantage during the gap, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 and Anthropic’s Claude models shipping on schedule.
The stakes are high for Alphabet, whose shares fell more than 4% in July after Bloomberg reported the setback, wiping out roughly $200 billion in market value.
For now, the current flagship remains Gemini 3.1 Pro, which dates back to February.
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