Nvidia Earnings on August 26: What History Tells Us About Nvidia Stock’s Post-Earnings-Release Moves

Nvidia (NVDA +2.19%) is scheduled to report its results for the second quarter of fiscal 2027 (ended July 26, 2026) on Wednesday, Aug. 26, after the market close.

The artificial intelligence (AI) giant’s earnings release is arguably the most anticipated of the quarterly earnings season. That’s because Nvidia dominates the AI chip and infrastructure market, making it a bellwether for the fast-growing AI space.

Nvidia has a super track record of beating Wall Street’s estimates for revenue, earnings, and guidance — but that doesn’t necessarily mean its stock price will rise following the release.

Image source: Getty Images.

Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 guidance and Wall Street’s estimates

Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Fiscal Q2 2027 ended July 26, 2026. GAAP = generally accepted accounting principles. *Calculation by the author based on the metrics for which management provided guidance.

As with the last few quarters, Nvidia’s guidance assumes no data center AI chip sales to China.

Wall Street’s estimates for fiscal Q3 guidance

Oftentimes, a company’s guidance (relative to Wall Street’s expectations) affects its stock price more than its current results following an earnings release. That’s because the stock market is a forward-looking machine — investors care more about a company’s future than its past performance.

Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Fiscal Q3 2027 ends in late Oct. 2026.

Today’s Change

(2.19%) $4.57

Current Price

$213.05

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$5.0TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.

Day’s Range

$210.11 – $214.73

52wk Range

$164.07 – $236.54

Volume

122.3M

Avg Vol

140.1M

Gross Margin

74.15%

Dividend Yield

0.13%

Nvidia’s great long-term “earnings beat” track record

Nvidia has a robust track record of exceeding Wall Street’s earnings estimates. Below is the data for the past 24 quarters, with the results of the last four quarters broken out.

Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Calculations by the author. *Earnings in the form of adjusted earnings per share (EPS). **Rounded to the nearest whole number.

Nvidia stock’s performance following earnings releases

The data below shows the size of Nvidia’s earnings beat and its stock price performance on the day following the release for the prior 13 quarters, or just over three years.

I chose 13 quarters for a reason: This is the period since demand for Nvidia’s data center products skyrocketed due to the powerful demand for generative AI capabilities driven by OpenAI’s release of its ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022.

Data sources: Nvidia, Yahoo! Finance, and YCharts. *Rounded to the nearest whole number.

Focus on Nvidia’s results and guidance, not on the stock price move

I’ll end on the same note as I did the last two quarters when I did this exercise:

As you can see, there is no significant correlation between the magnitude of the earnings beat and stock price performance after the earnings release. But that shouldn’t concern long-term investors. As long as Nvidia continues to deliver strong results, its stock price should continue to increase over the long term.