Gun Buyback Could Be a Major Issue at Next NSW State Election, Minns Says
New South Wales Premier Chris Minns has indicated that the state’s controversial gun buyback program could become a major issue for voters at the next state election, putting firearms policy firmly into the political spotlight ahead of the 2027 poll.
The comments come as NSW moves ahead with one of the biggest changes to firearms regulation in decades. The reforms were introduced following the deadly Bondi Beach terrorist attack and are designed to reduce the number of firearms in the community, tighten licensing requirements and restrict the number and types of guns that individuals can legally possess.
The NSW Government has also confirmed plans for a large-scale compensation program for firearms surrendered under the new rules. The buyback is expected to begin in November 2026, with thousands of gun owners potentially affected.
Why the Gun Buyback Has Become an Election Issue
The next NSW state election is scheduled for March 2027, only a few months after the buyback is expected to begin. That timing means voters will have an opportunity to judge the government’s approach while the program is still being implemented.
The NSW Electoral Commission lists the next state election for March 2027, when voters will elect members of the 59th Parliament.
For the Minns Government, the buyback is part of a broader firearms strategy that seeks to strengthen public safety. For opponents, however, the program raises questions about compensation, costs, property rights and whether restrictions on licensed firearm owners will deliver measurable safety benefits.
That divide could make firearms policy particularly important in regional and rural electorates, where firearms can have legitimate uses in agriculture, pest management and sport shooting.
What the NSW Gun Buyback Is Designed to Do
The buyback is being introduced alongside significant changes to NSW firearms laws. The government has described the reforms as among the toughest firearms measures introduced in the state in a generation.
Under the reforms announced by the NSW Government, the standard limit for an individual is four firearms, although exemptions apply to certain groups, including primary producers and sport shooters. Eligible people may be able to possess up to 10 firearms under specified conditions.
The objective is to encourage owners to surrender firearms that they can no longer legally retain once the new restrictions apply. The firearms surrendered through the program are intended to be destroyed rather than returned to circulation.
Buyback Compensation
Compensation is a central part of the scheme because the new restrictions can affect the value and lawful use of firearms already owned by licensed Australians.
Recent reports indicate that the first stage of the NSW program is expected to provide fixed compensation amounts for several categories of firearms, while a later phase will deal with higher-value firearms. The reported compensation structure ranges from hundreds of dollars for some firearms to as much as $10,000 for certain higher-value weapons.
The precise compensation arrangements are important because firearm owners and industry representatives have previously called for payments that reflect the actual value of surrendered property.
NSW parliamentary records show that the government had been working with the Commonwealth and other jurisdictions to determine the buyback arrangements, including the compensation model.
Thousands of Firearms Could Be Surrendered
The scale of the proposed program is significant. Recent reporting estimates that as many as 274,000 registered firearms could be affected in NSW, potentially making the program one of Australia’s largest firearm buybacks since the national response to the Port Arthur massacre in 1996.
The government expects a substantial number of legally owned firearms to be surrendered once the new limits and classifications take effect.
That does not necessarily mean every affected firearm will be handed in immediately. Some owners may qualify for exemptions, while others could change their licensing arrangements or determine that they have a legitimate reason to retain particular firearms.
The scale of participation will therefore depend on the final operation of the new rules, the compensation available and how individual owners respond.
Bondi Attack Changed the Political Debate
The firearms reforms have their roots in the December 2025 terrorist attack at Bondi Beach, which killed 15 people and triggered renewed national debate about Australia’s gun laws.
The NSW Government subsequently introduced legislation aimed at tightening firearm licensing and reducing risks associated with firearm ownership. The government has argued that stronger controls are necessary to reduce the potential for firearms to be used in future acts of mass violence.
Further reforms have already begun. In July 2026, the NSW Government announced the next phase of its firearms changes, including reducing the maximum firearm licence period from five years to two years and continuing the implementation of stricter oversight measures.
The government has also allocated $39.3 million to upgrade the NSW Firearms Registry, including additional staffing and technology to implement the reforms.
Opposition From Gun Owners and Political Rivals
The buyback has generated significant opposition. Critics argue that lawful firearm owners should not bear the financial consequences of policy changes introduced after a terrorist attack.
Some opponents have also questioned whether restricting licensed owners will directly address the criminal and security threats that policymakers are attempting to prevent.
For rural communities, the debate has an additional dimension. Farmers and primary producers may require firearms for legitimate agricultural purposes, including controlling pest animals and protecting livestock.
NSW parliamentary material confirms that the legislation contains provisions allowing primary producers with a genuine reason to possess up to 10 firearms, while additional approvals may be possible in certain circumstances involving pest-animal control.
Why Regional NSW Could Be Crucial
The political consequences of the buyback may extend beyond the policy itself. Regional voters are likely to pay close attention to how the new regulations affect farming, shooting sports and firearm-related businesses.
At the same time, the government can argue that stronger firearm controls are an important part of its broader public-safety agenda.
This creates a difficult political balance. Labor will need to demonstrate that the reforms are effective without alienating voters who believe the rules go too far. Opposition parties, meanwhile, will need to explain what alternative approach they would take while addressing concerns about firearm safety and mass violence.
The Cost of the Program Will Also Face Scrutiny
Another major election issue is likely to be the total cost of the buyback.
The NSW Government has been working with the Commonwealth Government on the funding arrangements. Earlier parliamentary answers indicated that NSW’s contribution was expected to be matched by the Commonwealth once the national scheme’s parameters were finalised.
The final bill will depend on the number of firearms surrendered, compensation values, administrative costs and assistance provided to affected businesses.
Firearms dealers and other businesses have also raised concerns about the economic consequences of the reforms. The government has said it is considering the impact on industry participants as the scheme is implemented.
What the 2027 Election Could Decide
With the buyback scheduled to begin before the next state election, voters could have an unusually direct opportunity to assess the policy.
If the program proceeds smoothly and the government can demonstrate that it is improving public safety, Labor could present the buyback as evidence of decisive action following the Bondi tragedy.
But if the program faces administrative problems, compensation disputes or strong resistance from firearm owners, opposition parties could use those difficulties to argue that the policy was poorly designed.
Firearms Policy Could Become a Key Campaign Issue
The election debate is unlikely to be limited to the buyback itself. It could encompass licensing periods, firearm limits, storage requirements, police oversight, compensation and the broader question of how governments should respond to terrorism and violent crime.
That makes the months between the start of the buyback and the March 2027 election politically significant.
What Happens Next?
The immediate focus will be on implementing the buyback and ensuring firearm owners understand their obligations. The government will also need to communicate eligibility, compensation arrangements and deadlines clearly.
NSW Police and the Firearms Registry will have an important role in administering the reforms, while federal authorities are involved in the broader national framework.
The success of the program will ultimately depend not only on how many firearms are surrendered but also on whether the government can demonstrate that the measures achieve their stated public-safety objectives.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the next NSW state election?
The next NSW state election is scheduled for March 2027, according to the NSW Electoral Commission.
When is the NSW gun buyback expected to begin?
The current program is expected to begin in November 2026, ahead of the 2027 state election.
Why is NSW introducing a gun buyback?
The buyback forms part of broader firearms reforms introduced after the Bondi Beach terrorist attack. The government says the measures are intended to reduce firearm risks and strengthen public safety.
How many firearms could be surrendered?
Recent estimates suggest that up to about 274,000 registered firearms could be affected by the NSW reforms, although the final number surrendered will depend on exemptions, licensing decisions and individual owners’ choices.
Will farmers be allowed to keep firearms?
Yes. The legislation provides exemptions for certain primary producers and other eligible firearm users. In specified circumstances, primary producers can possess up to 10 firearms, with additional approvals possible for particular genuine reasons.
How much compensation will firearm owners receive?
Compensation varies according to firearm type and value. Reported arrangements include fixed payments for some categories and higher payments for certain valuable firearms. Final eligibility and payment rules will determine individual compensation.
Why could the buyback matter at the 2027 election?
Because the program is expected to begin only months before the election, voters will be able to assess its implementation, costs and effects while deciding which party should govern NSW.
Conclusion
Chris Minns’s comments underline how closely the NSW gun buyback is becoming tied to the state’s political future. The policy is no longer simply a question of firearms regulation; it is also becoming a test of the government’s approach to public safety, compensation and relations with licensed firearm owners.
As the November 2026 rollout approaches, attention will turn to how many firearms are surrendered, how much compensation is paid and whether the system works as intended. By the time NSW voters head to the polls in 2027, the results of that process could play an important role in the political debate.
For the Minns Government, the challenge will be to show that the reforms deliver meaningful safety benefits. For opponents, the election provides an opportunity to argue that the government has imposed unnecessary costs and restrictions on lawful firearm owners. Either way, the gun buyback is likely to remain a prominent issue as NSW moves toward its next state election.
