Northern Star shares are closing in on $25. Can the rally keep going?

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are having another good day on Friday.

At the time of writing, the gold miner’s shares are up 1.13% to $24.61.

It continues a strong run over the past month, with Northern Star shares now up around 21% since the end of July.

That bounce has helped the stock claw back some of its earlier losses. The shares are now up around 30% over the past 12 months, although they are still down roughly 8% in 2026 and remain well below their 52-week high of $31.96.

So, what’s been giving Northern Star shares a lift lately?

Gold prices are helping

One thing working in Northern Star’s favour right now is the gold price.

Gold is trading around US$4,583 an ounce and has climbed almost 13% over the past month, which is giving gold miners a nice tailwind.

Northern Star’s FY26 result also showed just how much that stronger gold price can help.

Revenue rose 19% to $7.62 billion, even though gold sold fell 6% to 1.54 million ounces. Helping offset the lower sales volume was the average realised gold price, which jumped 26% to $4,925 an ounce.

Underlying EBITDA increased 22% to $4.27 billion, while statutory net profit rose 24% to $1.66 billion.

Shareholders also got a fully-franked final dividend of 30 cents per share.

Investors clearly liked what they saw, with the stock jumping 6.2% on 20 August when the result was released.

What happens next at KCGM?

A lot now comes down to how the KCGM expansion plays out.

Northern Star is now commissioning the larger processing plant, with the project expected to play a bigger role in production and cash flow over the coming years.

Management is guiding to FY27 gold production of 1.5 million to 1.65 million ounces, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $3,050 to $3,450 an ounce.

Spending is still going to be high, though. Capital expenditure is expected to come in between $2.55 billion and $2.94 billion as work continues across KCGM and the Hemi project.

Keep in mind that this investment weighed on FY26 underlying free cash flow, which fell 64% to $190 million.

Managing director Stuart Tonkin called the company an “important inflection point”, with the KCGM expansion expected to help lift free cash flow as the ramp-up continues.

What are brokers saying?

Despite the recent rally, brokers aren’t all convinced there is much upside left.

According to TipRanks, the average 12-month price target is $23.08, which sits below where Northern Star shares are trading today.

Of the 11 analyst ratings, 2 are buys, 8 are holds, and 1 is a sell.

Jefferies is more positive, though. The broker kept its buy rating after the FY26 result and lifted its price target to $27.

With the shares now at $24.61, Jefferies still sees the stock heading a little higher from here.