Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) shares rose to $120 in Friday morning trading as Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) approached $77,000.
The company’s enormous Bitcoin stack, roughly $13 billion underwater during July’s selloff, is now sitting on an unrealized gain of approximately $1.4 billion.
Strategy’s ledger shows 840,447 Bitcoin acquired for $63.36 billion, an average of $75,385 per coin. The rebound has produced a swing of approximately $14.4 billion in the value of Saylor’s wager relative to its cost.
“I feel your pain, but I think we have to be prepared to have difficult years,” Saylor told shareholders on Monday. Days later, Bitcoin erased the company’s paper loss.
What Is Driving Bitcoin’s Rally
Bitcoin’s latest surge followed the Treasury’s announcement that it would increase long-dated bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.
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The move briefly pushed yields and the dollar lower, reviving the “debasement trade” as investors bought Bitcoin and gold as protection against currency erosion.
President Donald Trump hosted crypto executives at the White House, while the SEC and CFTC signaled a friendlier regulatory approach. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also attracted approximately $1.61 billion over four sessions.
More than $4 billion in bearish crypto positions were liquidated over two days, forcing traders to buy and accelerating the breakout.
Bitcoin Breakeven Is Not Corporate Breakeven
Strategy is back above water on Bitcoin, but that does not mean the company is repaired. The $1.4 billion is a paper gain, while financing costs remain and many MSTR shareholders are still nursing losses.
Monday’s filing shows why. Strategy raised $333.7 million by selling 3.46 million MSTR shares, yet bought no Bitcoin for a seventh straight week. The money instead supported its preferred shares and increased its dollar reserve to $4.8 billion.
With Strategy’s mNAV recently near 1, the stock lacks the rich premium that powered Saylor’s model: issue expensive shares and buy more Bitcoin. The rally has rebuilt Strategy’s cushion, but it has not yet restarted the flywheel.
Prediction Markets See a $17 Billion Trapdoor
Traders on Kalshi still assign a 38% probability that Bitcoin falls below $55,000 before the end of the year, although that figure has dropped 21 percentage points during the rally.
At $55,000, Strategy’s current holdings would be worth approximately $46.2 billion, roughly $17.1 billion below their acquisition cost. Saylor recently urged investors to hold Bitcoin for more than four years, ideally 10. A $14.4 billion swing in five weeks shows why.
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