Euro stalls below recent highs against Pound Sterling as German surveys take center stage

The Euro (EUR) treads water against the Pound Sterling (GBP) on Monday, holding in the mid-0.8500s after struggling to sustain its push toward 0.8580 last week.

The range is unlikely to break without a fresh catalyst, and the most immediate one sits on the Euro side. Germany publishes second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Tuesday, expected to remain subdued, alongside the closely watched IFO business surveys. The headline IFO Business Climate index is expected to edge up to 87.2 in August from 86.6, with the current-conditions and expectations gauges also pointing higher.

On the other side, there is little on the UK docket to give the Pound its own lead. That leaves the cross to trade off the relative outlook for the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE), and for now Sterling is holding firm enough to cap any Euro rebound.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/GBP trades at 0.8559, holding right on the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) while remaining capped beneath the 20-period SMA at 0.8567. This configuration, together with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.5 slipping below the midline, suggests a mildly bearish near-term tone, with upside attempts likely constrained by nearby overhead supply.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the horizontal barriers clustered around 0.8560 and 0.8561, followed by the 20-period SMA at 0.8567, which reinforces the corrective cap. On the downside, initial support emerges at 0.8554, ahead of the lower horizontal floor at 0.8551; a break under this zone would open the door to a deeper pullback within the current range-bound structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)