Standard Chartered economist Dan Pan expects the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its policy rate at 2.25% and delay a 25bps cut to December, citing a Q2 growth rebound that reduces the need for immediate easing. The report highlights downside growth risks from recent US tariffs, but also notes high odds of trade de-escalation and questions market pricing of BoC hikes by mid-2027.

BoC cut delayed despite tariff risks

“We now expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25% and defer the 25bps cut to December.”

“The Q2 growth rebound should reduce the need for imminent monetary easing.”

“Despite the recent tariff escalation, policy makers may want to wait for more data to gauge the impact of the new tariffs on growth and inflation.”

“A case could be made for an insurance cut next week if the BoC wants to cushion the economy against the looming tariff shock.”

“Markets are now pricing in c.65bps of hikes by mid-2027, which we think is excessive.”

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)


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Shin John
Shin JohnYtv Market News
Share-market news writer and analyst with deep experience covering equities, commodities, forex, and cryptocurrencies for readers in the USA, UK, Canada, and Australia. Ytv Market News delivers timely market updates, practical trading insights, and clear explanations of macro and company-level catalysts that move prices. Combines on-the-ground financial reporting with technical analysis, using concise charts and actionable ideas to help investors and traders make smarter decisions.