By August 2027, $5,000 invested in Ampol shares could turn into…

Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD) shares are storming higher in Monday lunchtime trade.

At the time of writing, the petroleum company’s shares are up around 4% and trading at an all-time high of $41.42 a piece.

Today’s hike means the shares are now up 29% for the year to date, and have rallied 40% higher over the past 12 months.

The latest increase comes off the back of Ampol’s first-half FY26 results, which it posted to the ASX ahead of the market open this morning.

Investors are clearly thrilled with the update, and many are rushing to snap up its shares while they’re still trading for cheap. 

Ampol announced that its Group replacement cost operating profit (RCOP) came in 152% higher versus the first half of FY25, RCOP NPAT surged a huge 376% compared to the prior corresponding period, and statutory NPAT came to $1,363 million, compared to a loss of $25 million last year.

The strong result also meant Ampol was able to raise its fully-franked interim dividend to 185 cents per share, more than four times the prior year.

Ongoing concerns around global oil supply have also helped drive the shares higher over the past 12 months. 

Ampol is Australia’s largest transport energy distributor and retailer, with more than 1,800 Ampol-branded service stations across the country. 

The company has also posted a few updates that have gathered investor attention. In June, Ampol received the green light, with conditions, from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) for a proposed acquisition of fuel and convenience store operator, EG Australia. 

It also previously confirmed a 10% increase in refinery production, higher refiner margins, and increased production in its Q1 FY26 trading update.

What do brokers tip next for Ampol shares?

Brokers have a very positive stance on Ampol shares, but after today’s price increase, the average target price now implies a downside ahead.

I expect to see the experts revise their forecast for Ampol shares in the coming days, but at the time of writing, Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers have a buy rating on the shares, and the $41.25 average target price implies a potential 0.5% downside.

TradingView data shows something similar. Out of 10 analysts, five have a buy/strong buy rating on the stock. Four more rate Ampol shares as a hold and one as a sell.

The average $41.78 target price implies a potential 1% upside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing. But the more bullish of the bunch think there is potential for the shares to climb another 19% to $49.25.

So, if I invest $5,000 into Ampol shares today, what could they be worth in 12 months?

These forecasts suggest that a $5,000 investment in Ampol shares today could rise slightly to somewhere around $5,050 within the next 12 months. 

Or if the more bearish broker forecasts are correct, we could see the same investment climb as high as $5,950 by this time next year.