Broker’s call: Nykaa (Buy) – The HinduBusinessLine

Target: ₹475

CMP: ₹332.80

Our conviction on FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) rests on the dual engines of premium user penetration and premiumisation. These underpin a durable about 25 per cent BPC GMV CAGR to FY30E. Nykaa’s curated, high-AOV proposition is insulated from quick-commerce (QC) disruption (more acute for horizontal platforms).

Nykaa retained leadership in online BPC (27 per cent share in FY27) despite quick commerce’s rapid rise, with limited share erosion. As QC penetration plateaus, we expect Nykaa to resume share gains by FY30E, aided by its niche proposition and higher AOV, which cushions fulfilment investments and helps scale Nykaa Now. Rising premium smartphone penetration support 25 per cent CAGR in FY26-30E.

Our revenue/PAT estimates sit above consensus (FY29E) yet at the lower band of FY30 guidance. Confidence rests on multiple levers: higher platform fees offering margin upside, a high-AOV cushion supporting superior unit economics, ROE reaching 37 per cent by FY30E, unmatched by any Indian B2C internet platform and potential earnings upgrades from execution towards the upper end of guidance.

Improving FCF/EBITDA conversion (59 per cent in FY26) remain ahead of global peers. We roll to FY30E and reiterate buy with higher TP of ₹475 (from ₹400).

Published on August 25, 2026