ASX 200 Live Today – Wednesday, 19th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, August 19. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We’ll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we’ve got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

New updates

ASX 200 lower as banks extend declines, tech stocks weighed by Wisetech selloff

[2:10 pm] That’s a wrap! The S&P/ASX 200 is down 34 pts (-0.38%), off session lows of -0.56%. Sector performance was weak, with only Energy trading notably higher, while Staples and Utilities outperformed on a relative basis.

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

Major miners and the Big Four Banks traded mostly lower, with most bank stocks down 3-8% in the past week.

Wisetech shares tumbled 11.1% to $38.52 after it was served an ACCC search warrant relating to alleged violations of consumer legislation. Other key tech names also struggled after US tech stocks sold off overnight, with notable declines for Data#3 (-6.0%), NextDC (-5.4%), Life360 (-5.3%), Siteminder (-4.7%) and more.

Markets remain weighed down by a hawkish outlook, though global long-dated bonds broadly pulled back from multi-year and multi-decade highs on Wednesday. Japanese 30-year yields fell 4 bps to 4.09% and US 30-year yields eased 1 bp to 5.27%. Brent is up 0.5% to US$91.81 a barrel, a fourth straight day of gains as Hormuz flows stay at a standstill. The S&P/ASX 200 financials index is dropping like a rock, down eight of the last nine sessions for a 7.4% slide as the sector digests a flurry of quarterlies and results from the majors. It’s volatile out there, and August reporting season has been flat to dicey at best.

Lycopodium FY26 earnings call highlights: Record committed work and Americas push

[1:46 pm] Management framed FY26 as a landmark year and brought FY27 guidance forward, pointing to a surging study pipeline and a disciplined build-out across the Americas.

• On bringing guidance forward given the step-change ahead, the CEO said FY27 “looks a little different to FY26”, guiding to revenue of $540-580m and NPAT of $54-58m, in line with the plus or minus 10% NPAT margin target

• On how much of the FY27 midpoint is secured: “Just under 70% is already committed, which is fantastic for this time of the year”, with the balance still to commit but much of it near-term

• On the doubling of the study pipeline, the CEO attributed it to the regional model: “It is really taking that One Lycopodium approach across the hubs, trying to break down silos”

• On study-to-project conversion: “In plus 70% of cases, we are able to convert our advanced stage studies into projects which we execute”

• On managing sovereign risk through split contracts: a large portion of engineering, procurement and study work is contracted through the APAC, Americas or South African hubs, keeping “a lot of our revenues… outside of those international locations”

• On the Americas as a growth pillar, the CEO noted the push has increased the addressable market by 40%, with Toronto, Lima and Vancouver offices all set to expand

• On EPCM tender targets in the region: “Typically, the work that we’re tendering, certainly at an EPCM level, is a project with CapEx value somewhere between $500 million and $800 million”

Company page: Lycopodium (LYL)

Healius FY26 earnings call highlights: Fair Work costs weighing on FY27 as transformation gains traction

[1:45 pm] Management framed FY26 as a year of disciplined cost execution and margin recovery, while guiding FY27 EBIT to consensus as a $15m Fair Work impost masks the underlying improvement.

• On FY27 guidance including the labour hit, the CEO was explicit when asked whether the $15m Fair Work cost was embedded: “It’s fully included, David. Yes”, confirming EBIT would otherwise be tracking nearer the AUD 55m mark

• On the make-up of the Fair Work cost: “It is made up of effectively the 4.75 variation… It is the changes to the scientists from the 1st of October, and the additional increase for collectors on the 1st of January”

• On the underlying cost trajectory: “If you take the $15 million out of pathology labor costs for next year, costs are broadly flat again year on year”

• On the path to positive cash generation, the CFO pointed to the resetting cost base and revenue ramp: “The cash component in the second half is better, and that is what we expect to continue”

• On out-of-pocket billing for unfunded tests: “B12 and urine was a really good test case. But it’s difficult” from a referrer acceptance and collection standpoint

• On the Agilex sale process: “The business has received strong interest from a number of potential acquirers”, with the CFO noting a clean separation and nothing left behind

• On telehealth as a structural headwind, the CEO noted telehealth is around 18% of GP attendances and generates referrals “slightly less than half of what a face-to-face visit would have”

• On persistent share price underperformance versus Australian Clinical Labs, the CEO acknowledged the gap: “We are coming from a different starting point, and we have got a plan to close that gap”

Company page: Healius (HLS)

RBA warns further rate hikes needed if inflation risks crystallise

[1:43 pm] Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser struck a hawkish tone, warning the central bank would lift rates again if upside risks to inflation materialise after holding steady for a second consecutive meeting.

• Hauser said inflation remains “too high”, citing excessive pressure on capacity domestically alongside Middle East-driven cost pressures

• Flagged three key upside risks to inflation: the Middle East conflict, the global AI investment boom, and weak domestic productivity and capacity growth

• The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% last week, having already lifted rates by 75bp since February to curb stubborn inflation

• Governor Michele Bullock had similarly warned after last week’s decision that a further hike remained possible

• Markets imply around a 60% chance of an increase to 4.60% by December, with oil prices at three-week highs, though investors assume that would likely mark the end of the tightening cycle

• Hauser noted a slowdown in consumption and employment growth but characterised it as “not a slump”, just slower than Australia has known recently

Santos 1H26 earnings call highlights: A tale of two halves with cash flow set to accelerate

[12:58 pm] Executives used the first-half call to stress the inflection from major project spend into production and cash generation, as Barossa and Pikka ramp toward plateau and second-half pricing strengthens.

• On the second-half inflection: “As Barossa and Pikka ramp towards plateau, we expect second half production to be around 20%-30% higher than the first half. That combination of higher production and lower CapEx is expected to drive stronger free cash flows”

• On the dividend reflecting the full-year view: “I am pleased that the board has resolved to pay an interim dividend of $0.116 per share, a dividend consistent with our capital allocation framework and reflecting its view of the full-year performance outlook”

• On Pikka production being deliberately constrained, the CEO explained: “The wells could produce a lot more than that. We’ve constrained that production because we need water injection support, pressure support for the reservoir, so that we don’t produce too fast”

• On the seawater treatment plant, the key near-term operational step: “The plant is operational at this point in time, and water is going into the pipeline… Our schedule still has us forecasting that that would get to the plateau before the end of the quarter”

• On the pricing lag flowing through, the CFO noted: “Most of our LNG contracts have around a three-month pricing lag, so the benefit of that stronger pricing will flow into realised pricing in the second half”, with JCC now trading above $100 a barrel

• On cash flow sensitivity from 2027: “For every $10 Brent trades above our breakeven, free cash flow increases from around $400 million today to between $550 million to $600 million once Barossa and Pikka reach plateau, an increase of around 50%”

• On the outlook for FIDs, the CEO flagged a quieter capital period: “I just don’t see us FID-ing anything for the next 2 years or so” outside Papua LNG, which targets FID in the fourth quarter

• On shareholder returns and gearing: “A minimum of 60% of that free cash flow would be returned to shareholders”, while continuing to target a $2.5bn net debt reduction by 2030

Company page: Santos (STO)

Wisetech tumbles as ACCC executes search warrant

[12:19 pm] Reuters reports that the ACCC has executed a search warrant on Wisetech over logistics services and software. The stock was trading fractionally higher prior to the news, which was released around 12:05 pm AEST. Its now down 9.1% to $39.38.

ASX 200 down for a sixth straight session

[12:04 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is down 0.37%, on track to mark a sixth straight day of declines. The index is now down seven of the last nine sessions, and 2.5% off the 6 August record high. Today marks another somewhat results-driven session, with CSL (+4.2%) continuing to rally after yesterday’s FY26 result, which broadly beat expectations along with FY27 underlying NPAT guidance of ~5% vs. consensus at ~2%. The stock is now up 22.2% in two sessions. Energy is also getting a kick as Santos (+3.0%) breaks out to the highest since September 2014. Tech stocks are trading broadly lower after the Nasdaq fell 1.3% overnight. Banks are struggling, with most names down 1-2%, including CBA (-1.9%), Westpac (-1.0%) and ANZ (-0.7%).

S&P/ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

Temple & Webster FY26 earnings call: New CEO targets return to growth

[11:39 am] Executives used the FY26 call to frame a deliberate near-term trade-off between margin and revenue, with returning CEO Susie Sugden setting out her early priorities against a soft consumer backdrop.

• On the margin trade-off: “We’ve chosen to focus on improving our unit economics while the market is soft. These are my numbers and my team’s numbers, and this is the right balance for this moment”

• On the FY27 setup, the CFO pointed to the fourth-quarter run rate: “The Q4 period was pretty much flat year-on-year, comping at 20% in the prior year. So I think that gives you a real sense on what an outcome for FY27 could look like”

• On the year-to-date decline: “Revenue year to date is down 13%. This is the result we expected, and we don’t think it’s indicative of the full year given that we’re comping 28% growth and have a number of growth initiatives already underway”

• On the biggest opportunity: “Even as the leading online retailer in our category, we represent just 2.9% of the furniture and homewares market in Australia… There is a lot of room to grow”

• On the permanence of the margin reset, the CEO agreed the higher delivered margin was a new line in the sand: “It has been a very deliberate choice to prioritise unit economics. And our expectation is those changes are permanent”

• On demand conditions, the CFO flagged softer conversion: “We did see slight weakness in conversion… down from 3% a year before… People are still browsing, but there is just that little bit more time taken to make a decision in this environment”

Company page: Temple & Webster (TPW)

Temple & Webster tumbles as soft FY27 trading update offsets strong EBITDA guidance

[11:31 am] Temple & Webster presented two contrasting data points in its FY27 guidance:

• FY27 year-to-date (1-Jul to 17-Aug) revenue down 13%

• FY27 EBITDA guidance of $33-40m, up 50-80% on FY26

The FY27 EBITDA guidance is well-ahead of Macquarie estimates of $26 million but the market is finding it hard to believe earnings can grow 50-80%, when revenue for the first seven weeks of FY27 is down 13%.

TPW shares opened 2.7% lower ($4.91%) and currently down 17.2% to $4.18, the lowest since May 2023. The stock is now down 69.7% year-to-date.

Japanese earnings post largest beat in five years, broadening the rally

[11:10 am] Corporate Japan delivered its strongest earnings surprise in half a decade despite higher oil costs, fuelling hopes that broadening profit growth can extend the equity rally beyond AI-related names.

• ~71% of local firms beat analyst profit forecasts in the three months to June, with aggregate net income at the 500 biggest companies topping ¥21tn (US$132bn), eclipsing the previous record of about ¥18tn a year ago

• Topix companies are projected to post record margins of 9.3%, the highest since comparable data began more than three decades ago

• The beat extended beyond exporters and semiconductors, with domestic-facing names such as Nitori, LY Corp and Otsuka also topping expectations, suggesting firms are gaining pricing power

• Profit declines were largely confined to sectors most exposed to the Middle East conflict, including airlines and utilities

• From July through mid-August, 77% of Topix constituents advanced while the index gained 4.7%, a broader spread than the prior season when only 56% rose despite a 10.5% surge

Source: Bloomberg

Macquarie lifts CSL target price 23% to $133 on earnings upgrades

[11:08 am] The broker retained a cautious stance on immunoglobulin but lifted its forecasts and target price after CSL’s FY26 result landed in line and management shifted its earnings reporting to underlying NPAT.

• FY26 EBIT came in 4% ahead of Macquarie ests on stronger revenue, though 17% higher tax and higher interest pulled NPATA in line with the US$3.1bn guidance

• IG revenue was flat (2% ahead of Macquarie), while Albumin fell 17% in constant currency on China impacts

• FY27 constant currency guidance of flat revenue at about US$15.8bn and NPAT growth of 5% to around US$3.0bn, both captured in Macquarie’s revised forecasts

• Around 3ppts of the 5% FY27 NPAT growth guide is supported by a roughly US$90m fall in post-tax acquired-IP amortisation rather than underlying momentum

• Macquarie remains cautious on IG, with Hizentra lagging competitors and risks from price competition and new entrants such as FcRn and complement inhibitors

• Target price raised 23% to $133 from $108, reflecting the upgrades and a partial unwind of the prior discount to 10% from 20%

Company page: CSL (CSL)

Macquarie lifts BHP target price 6% to $58.50 after strong FY26 result

[10:52 am] The broker reiterated its Neutral rating on BHP following a result that beat on free cash flow and dividends, driven by asset sale proceeds.

• FY26 EBITDA and EPS came in marginally ahead of Macquarie ests, up 1% and 4% respectively, with a 6% free cash flow beat and a 22% beat on the second-half dividend

• BHP surprised with a large 2HFY26 distribution of US$0.99ps, effectively paying out FY26 operating cash flow less capex, Samarco payments and NCI dividends, plus around 30% of asset sale proceeds

• Full-year payout ratio lifted to 66%, with Macquarie flagging a potential shift to a more cash flow-oriented dividend approach given prices above long-term averages, and the 50% minimum payout ratio remaining a cyclical floor

• Growth portfolio seen as increasingly self-funding, able to generate US$36bn attributable between FY27 and FY35 at consensus prices, with copper notably self-funding in the current high-price environment

• Free cash flow yield remains limited at around US$10bn per annum between FY27-31, implying a roughly 4% yield at current market capitalisation, with iron ore still underpinning cash generation

• Target price lifted 6% to A$58.50ps on the ASX, with the short-term earnings multiple raised to 7.5x from 7.0x on higher spot prices

Company page: BHP Group (BHP)

Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:41 am] Stockland and Mirvac both trading sharply higher on FY26 results, while CSL, Deterra Royalties and SRG Global continue to trend higher after yesterday’s FY26 results. Meanwhile, overnight tech weakness and soaring bond yields weigh on tech and risk-oriented related names like Goodman, Life360 and Nexgen.

Mirvac lifts FY26 operating profit 7%, announces buy-back on stronger balance sheet

[10:21 am] The diversified property group delivered earnings in line with guidance, with residential margins above target and gearing back inside its target range. The stock is up 7.1% to $1.86 in early trade.

• Operating profit after tax up 7% to $508m, or 12.9 cpss

• Statutory profit of $677m, up sharply from $68m in FY25

• Distribution up 6% to $376m, or 9.5 cpss

• Development EBIT up 52%, with residential settlements of 2,130 lots and sales up 15% to 2,425 lots, residential margins above target at 24%

• Investment portfolio occupancy of 98%, like-for-like growth of 5.3% and valuation uplift of $253m, with third-party capital under management up over 12% to more than $18bn

• Headline gearing down to 24.1% from 27.6%, inside the 20-30% target range, with an on-market buy-back announced alongside the result

Company page: Mirvac (MGR)

Healius lifts underlying earnings despite Pathology headwinds, books large impairment

[9:46 am] The pathology and diagnostics provider delivered improved underlying earnings and second-half margins, though a non-cash goodwill impairment drove a sharply wider statutory loss.

• Revenue up 2.1% to $1.37bn vs $1,378m ests (in line), supported by Pathology fee growth and strong Agilex Biolabs revenue

• Underlying EBITDA up 8.1% to $258.6m vs $260m ests (in line)

• Underlying EBIT up 76.6% to $30.2m vs $32m ests (6% miss)

• Reported net loss of $415.6m vs a $151.2m loss a year ago, driven by a $332.0m non-cash goodwill impairment and a $31.5m deferred tax asset derecognition

• Interest costs down 24.6% to $49.1m on lower average debt levels

• No dividend paid for the year

• Pathology environment remains challenging, with GP attendances down 0.9% and most MBS items still receiving no indexation, though ageing-population demand supports the medium to long-term outlook

Company page: Healius (HLS)

Service Stream lifts earnings on margin gains and strong cash conversion

[9:38 am] The essential network services provider delivered double-digit earnings growth, expanding margins and mobilising new Defence, Water and Industrial contracts.

• Total revenue of $2,475m, favourable to the prior year on Utility, Transport and early-stage Defence contributions

• EBITDA from Operations up 11.8% to $163.4m, with the group EBITDA-A margin up 60bps to 6.6%

• Utility EBITDA-A margin up 130bps to 5.8%, with a second-half exit rate of 6.0% well ahead of expectations

• NPAT-A up 18.4% to $81.1m

• Secured more than $3.2bn of contracted works, lifting work-in-hand to $8.2bn (excluding extension options)

• Final dividend of 3.5cps fully franked, taking full-year dividends to 6.5cps, with earnings growth expected in FY27 from recently mobilised contracts

Company page: Service Stream (SSM)

Evolution delivers record result, lifts payout rate to 60% of cash flow

[9:28 am] The gold and copper miner posted its strongest financial result on record, moving to a net cash position and upgrading its dividend policy on the back of surging margins and cash generation.

• Underlying EBITDA up 44% to a record $3,171m vs $3.12bn Macquarie ests (2% beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 63% to a record $1,563m vs $1.60bn Macquarie ests (2% miss)

• EPS up 57% to a record 73cps

• Group cash flow up 76% to a record $1,389m, at a margin of $1,958/oz

• Record final fully franked dividend of 21.0cps, up 62%, taking the full-year dividend to a record 41.0cps vs 40cps Macquarie ests (3% beat), returning around $833m to shareholders

• Dividend policy improved to ~60% of Group cash flow, up from around 50%, with the group moving to a net cash position ($1,347m cash vs. $1,329m debt) and no repayments due until FY29

• FY27 guidance for gold production of 660-730koz (midpoint broadly in line with Macquarie ests) and copper of 63-70kt, at AISC of $1,795-1,995/oz, the midpoint running around 10% above Macquarie ests of $1,717 but better than UBS’ $1,930/oz ests

Company page: Evolution Mining (EVN)

Hansen delivers recurring revenue growth and margin expansion, flags FY27 as transition year

[9:19 am] The software provider lifted underlying earnings and margins despite a small revenue decline, driven by its growing recurring revenue base and AI-led productivity gains.

The below ests refer to Ord Minnett forecasts and not consensus.

• Revenue down 1.5% to $386.5m vs $399.3m ests (3% miss), reflecting lower licence fees and foreign exchange headwinds

• Underlying EBITDA up 7.2% to $119.6m vs $120.8m ests (1% miss),

• Underlying EBITDA margin up 250bps to 31.0% vs. 30.3% ests (70 bp beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 22.5% to $48.5m

• Operating cash flow up 52.0% to $110.4m, with a cash conversion ratio of 0.9x and leverage of 0.1x after repaying $63.5m of borrowings

• FY27 revenue expected broadly stable with Support & Maintenance revenue growth of about 6-8%, and Underlying EBITDA margin expected to exceed 26%

• Board views FY27 as an investment and transition year, expecting a net cash position during Q2 FY27 and a return to revenue growth and a 30%-plus EBITDA margin in FY28

Company page: Hansen Technologies (HSN)

Stockland delivers FY26 at top end of guidance, positioned for FY27 growth

[9:17 am] The diversified property group posted double-digit funds from operations growth on materially higher development settlements, guiding to further FFO growth in FY27.

• Post-tax Funds From Operations up 10.4% to $892m, with FFO per security of 36.9cps at the top end of the guidance range

• Statutory profit up 20.2% to $994m

• NTA per security up 4.0% to $4.39, with management fee income up 20% to $119m

• Development FFO up 17.3% to $540m on higher settlement volumes and fee income, with MPC lot settlements up 30% to 8,902 and LLC home settlements up 48% to 777

• Investment Management FFO up 2.6% to $606m, with Logistics comparable FFO up 8.1% and re-leasing spreads of 33.8%

• Full-year distribution of 25.2cps post tax, a 69% payout ratio, with gearing of 22.7% within the 20-30% target range

• FY27 guidance for FFO per security of 38.0-39.0cps and distribution of 25.2cps, in line with FY26

Company page: Stockland (SGP)

Lycopodium delivers FY26 within guidance, flags FY27 as a record year ahead

[9:14 am] The engineering and project delivery firm posted a solid result underpinned by its global project portfolio, with a sharply higher dividend and a strong outlook despite Middle East-related project delays.

• Revenue of $377.5m, within the $370-410m guidance range

• EBITDA of $59.5m

• NPAT of $40.2m, within the $37-41m guidance range and reflecting a 10.6% NPAT margin

• Fully franked final dividend of 37cps, taking full-year DPS to 59cps, up 69% on FY25 and reflecting a 60% payout ratio

• Healthy cash balance of $106.2m at 30 June 2026, with committed contracts of $661m

• FY27 guidance of revenue of $540-580m and NPAT of $54-58m, with the CEO flagging results set to surpass recent years as delayed projects ramp up

Company page: Lycopodium (LYL)

Whitehaven delivers robust FY26 result on strong output and cost discipline

[9:13 am] The coal miner offset cyclical price weakness and a stronger Australian dollar with record production and lower unit costs, entering FY27 into a firmer met coal market.

• Revenue down 7% to $5.4bn, split 57% metallurgical and 43% thermal, underpinned by an average achieved coal price of $202/t

• Underlying EBITDA of $1.3bn, reflecting strong operational performance and disciplined cost management

• Underlying NPAT of $227m, with statutory NPAT of $385m after $158m of adjustments mainly from BMA contingent payment remeasurement and FX gains

• Unit cost of coal of $132/t, down from $139/t in FY25

• Managed ROM production up 3% to 40.3Mt, at the top end of guidance, with managed sales of produced coal up 8% to 32.7Mt

• Fully franked final dividend of 6.0cps (around $47m), alongside an equal $47m of share buybacks over six months

• Net debt of $1.3bn after the second US$500m deferred BMA payment, with available liquidity of $959m and refinancing set to deliver around $50-55m of annualised interest savings

Company page: Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

Lottery Corp holds dividend through a 1-in-45-year jackpot drought

[9:10 am] An especially unfavourable run of Powerball and Oz Lotto jackpots weighed on the lotteries operator’s FY26 result, though pricing retention and Keno growth cushioned the underlying performance.

• Revenue down 2.7% to $3.58bn vs $3,707m ests (3% miss)

• EBITDA down 1.8% to $736.1m vs $744m ests (1% miss)

• EBIT down 4.2% to $622.3m vs $633m ests (2% miss)

• NPAT down 6.3% to $342.5m, broadly in line with ests on an unnamed basis, with NPAT including significant items down 22% to $284.6m

• Full-year dividend maintained at 16.5cps fully franked vs 16.0cps ests (3% beat), representing a payout ratio of 107% of NPAT before significant items

• The 40-year Victorian lottery licence extension lowered portfolio risk, though leverage of 3.1x will rise materially in 1H27 after the $1,145m licence payment, likely beyond the 3.0-4.0x target range

• FY27 guidance for operating expenses of $305-315m (FY26: $296m) and capex of about $100m, with the dividend policy shifting to 80-100% of NPATA before significant items

Company page: The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

Shape lifts revenue above $1.2bn as diversification strategy drives 50% profit growth

[9:08 am] The fitout and construction services specialist delivered strong top-line and earnings growth, underpinned by rapid expansion in data centres and modular building.

• Revenue up 30% to more than $1.2bn vs $1,188m ests (around 1% beat)

• Gross margin improved to 9.8% from 9.2%, supported by disciplined project selection and cost controls

• EBITDA up 53% to $50.1m vs $48m ests (4% beat)

• NPAT up 50% to $31.7m, ahead of ests on an unnamed basis, with EPS up 49% to 38.1cps

• Final dividend of 18.0cps, taking total declared dividends to 32.0cps, up 42% on FY25

• Data centre revenue rose to $109.1m (FY25: $0.5m) and Modular by SHAPE revenue up 228% to $74.1m, with office revenue share falling to 43% from 60%

• Enters FY27 with an identified pipeline of $4.8bn and backlog orders of $628.4m, having completed the Arden and APS acquisitions

Company page: Shape Australia Corporation (SHA)

EBOS delivers solid FY26 result as major investment cycle completes

[9:03 am] The healthcare and animal care distributor grew revenue and EBITDA within guidance, marking the completion of its four-year distribution centre renewal program.

• Revenue up 9.9% to $13.5bn vs $13,582m ests (in line)

• Gross operating revenue up 6.5% to $1.7bn

• Underlying EBITDA up 5.0% to $614m vs $614m ests (in line)

• Underlying NPAT down 3.1% to $250m, reflecting higher depreciation, amortisation and financing costs from the investment cycle, though ahead of ests on an unnamed basis

• Statutory NPAT up 4.7% to $225m

• Final dividend maintained at NZ 61.5cps, with a payout ratio of 84.5% of underlying NPAT, while leverage of 2.1x sat within the 1.7-2.3x target range

• FY27 underlying EBITDA guidance of $635-655m, with capex reducing materially to about $100m following completion of the renewal program

Interesting Citi comment on 14-Jul: “EBO is in a transition period where time and money has been invested in renewing infrastructure and the company should get back to mid single digit EBITDA growth next year. We see 7% growth, slightly ahead of consensus.”. At the midpoint, today’s FY27 guidance implies $645m or 5.0% year-on-year growth.

Company page: EBOS Group (EBO)

Turners holds FY27 $65m target as Middle East conflict dents NZ demand

[9:00 am] The automotive retailer and financier reaffirmed its full-year target at its annual meeting but flagged rising short-term risks as higher fuel prices weigh on vehicle demand.

• Group profit for the four months to July tracking 4% ahead of the same period in FY26, with Finance growth more than offsetting lower Auto Retail profit

• FY27 target of $65m NPBT retained, though management flagged increased risk to achieving it absent a resolution to the Middle East situation and a recovery in consumer confidence

• Vehicle margins hit harder and for longer than anticipated in May, with higher fuel prices materially reducing demand for diesel and larger petrol engine vehicles

• Consignment units down 14% July year to date, described as a timing issue as lease vendor pricing expectations adjust

• Finance loan book up a further 7.5% since March 2026, with arrears holding up well, while Insurance and Credit Management were broadly in line with last year

• Medium-term $100m NPBT target by FY31 reiterated, with Auto Retail branch expansion work continuing at pace

Company page: Turners Automotive Group (TRA)

Southern Cross Electrical lifts earnings 40% on margin step-up, guides to $100m EBITDA

[8:59 am] The electrical and communications contractor delivered record profitability despite lower revenue, with a stronger project mix and Force Fire contribution driving margins higher.

• Revenue down 10.3% to $718.7m as the CBESS and Western Sydney International Airport Terminal projects completed in the first half

• Gross profit up 29.1% to a record $136.7m, with gross margin expanding to 19.0% from 13.2%

• Underlying EBITDA up 40.5% to $77.0m

• Underlying EBIT up 40.3% to $64.4m

• Underlying NPAT up 24.3% to $39.4m, though statutory NPAT fell 77.6% to $7.1m on $46.1m of WestConnex dispute costs

• Total fully franked dividends up 33.3% to 10.0cps, including a record final of 7.5cps, with a record cash balance of $261.5m and no debt

• Record order book of $810m, up 18.2%, with FY27 EBITDA guidance of at least $100m (up around 30% on FY26) and data centre revenue forecast to triple from $120m in FY26

Company page: Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE)

BWP grows FFO and distributions as strategic reset reshapes portfolio

[8:57 am] The Bunnings landlord delivered a steady result with earnings growth, a firmer cap rate and an upgraded credit rating, capping a three-year reset of its portfolio and balance sheet.

• Funds from operations up 4.5% to $140.9m, with FFO per security up 2.1% to 19.29cps

• Statutory net profit after tax up 53.8% to $408.4m, including fair value movements

• Total distributions up 4.1% to 19.41cps

• NTA per security up 3.3% to $4.11, with portfolio value rising $257.0m on improved rental income and a firming in the weighted average cap rate to 5.25%

• Like-for-like rental growth of 3.0%, with large format retail leasing spreads up an average of 23.6%

• Portfolio WALE increased to 7.3 years following management internalisation and the Bunnings lease reset, while Moody’s upgraded BWP’s credit rating to A3 stable

• FY27 distribution guidance of 20.00cps, around 3.0% growth on FY26, reflecting an expected payout ratio of about 104% of FFO

Company page: BWP Trust (BWP)

Breville delivers record $1.8bn revenue with EBIT in line despite tariff upheaval

[8:55 am] The premium appliance maker grew revenue to a record in a year marked by four US tariff restructures and a substantially completed shift of its manufacturing footprint out of China.

• Revenue up 6.7% to a record $1.8bn vs $1,842m ests (around 2% miss), with reported growth dampened by second-half USD and Euro weakness

• Global Segment constant currency revenue growth of 9.7%, with double-digit growth in 2H26

• EBIT of $207m vs $207m ests (in line), delivered in line with budget and prior guidance

• 2H26 gross margin of 36.8%, above both 1H26 and the pcp, driven primarily by US sourcing mix

• Final dividend of 19.0cps (100% franked), taking full-year dividends to 38.0cps, up 2.7% and reflecting the target payout ratio of about 40% of EPS

• Group net cash of $104.4m at year end, with manufacturing diversification substantially complete and 85% of 120-volt product gross profit dollars now sourced outside China

• Young markets of China, Korea, Mexico and the Middle East collectively grew over 70%, with the China team delivering 7.1 times the revenue of its previous distributor

Company page: Breville Group (BRG)

Temple & Webster delivers record FY26 revenue, guides to strong FY27 EBITDA growth

[8:55 am] The online furniture and homewares retailer lifted profitability through margin initiatives despite a soft consumer, and is targeting a step-up in earnings next year.

• Revenue up 11% to $665m vs Morgan Stanley ests of $670m (1% miss), a record in a challenging consumer environment

• Reported EBITDA up 17% to $21.9m vs MS ests of $21m (4% beat), a 3.3% margin

• Underlying EBITDA (ex-FX) up 28% to $25.9m

• FY27 EBITDA guidance of $33-40m, up approximately 50-80% on FY26

• FY27 year-to-date revenue down 13% on pcp, cycling 28% growth a year earlier, though contribution margin dollars up 10%

• Cash balance of $123m after $30m of on-market buy-backs, with operating cash flow of $24m

Here’s a bit of perspective: TPW is down 63% year-to-date and trading around recent lows. The company released a trading update on 13 May that guided to FY26 revenue of $665-675m and EBITDA of $20-22m, so revenue landed at the bottom of the range while EBITDA came in at the top. After the update, Macquarie slashed its FY26-28 earnings forecasts by 50-57% and cut its target from $13.70 to $4.75. Management reaffirmed FY27 EBITDA of $40m, yet Macquarie’s forecast sat at just $26m. Even at a lower guidance midpoint of $33-40m ($36.5m midpoint), that’s a 40% beat on Macquarie’s estimates.

(Update: On second thought, the company’s FY27 year-to-date (1-Jul to 17-Aug) is down 13%. But somehow, they’re still guiding to 50-80% EBITDA growth? Which one is the market going to believe?)

Company page: Temple & Webster (TPW)

Alcidion delivers record profitability on 27% revenue growth

[8:46 am] The health informatics provider posted its strongest result to date, with accelerating recurring revenue and a strategic acquisition underpinning a positive FY27 outlook.

• Revenue up 27% to $51.6m

• ARR up 34% to $38.3m as at 30 June 2026

• Underlying EBITDA up 34% to $6.8m

• Operating cash flow up 19% to $6.8m, representing 100% underlying EBITDA cash conversion

• Cash balance of $20.6m with no debt at 30 June 2026

• FY27 contracted revenue of $44.9m as at 30 June 2026, up 32% on the pcp, providing strong forward visibility

• FY27 revenue and Underlying EBITDA expected to exceed FY26, underpinned by a diversified pipeline and new contracts with Leidos, UH Sussex NHS and North Cumbria NHS, plus the Kyra flow products acquisition

Company page: Alcidion (ALC)

Trump threatens to bomb Oman over Iran deal as Strait of Hormuz stays shut

[8:44 am] Tensions in the Gulf escalated as Washington opposed a proposed Iran-Oman deal to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with fresh attacks reported on vessels in the region.

• Trump threatened to bomb Oman over its involvement in a yet-to-be-announced deal on joint Iranian and Omani management of the strait’s exit route, according to two regional officials

• The US believes Oman has not been tough enough with Iran and objects to its agreement to collect voluntary fees from vessels

• Iran said the strait will not reopen until the US lifts the blockade, releases frozen assets, removes oil sanctions and ends military operations

• Trump insisted the strait is “open and operating” and that the US blockade remains in full force, despite limited traffic and the lapse of the 60-day negotiating period on Monday

• A projectile struck a ship exiting the strait off Oman causing a casualty, a cargo vessel was rendered a total loss off Yemen, and the UAE said two ballistic missiles were launched from Iran toward it

• Houthi rebels claimed drone attacks on a Saudi Aramco refinery, adding to threats against shipping through the Bab al-Mandab Strait

Nvidia to back OpenAI’s Ohio data centre with up to $105bn

[8:44 am] Nvidia has agreed to lend its balance sheet to a massive Ohio computing campus leased by OpenAI, deepening the ties between two of the AI boom’s dominant players.

• The pact covers Nvidia backing for the initial 4.25GW portion of the Pike County complex, with an option to take on a second 3.75GW phase for up to roughly 8GW of total capacity

• First 800MW expected online by 2028, with Nvidia’s phased backing running from 2028 to 2030 across a 20-year term

• OpenAI’s broader commitment to buy Nvidia gear could represent about $600bn of revenue for Nvidia through 2030

• CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on circular-financing concerns, saying OpenAI will pay the lease and Nvidia only secures inputs when it has visibility into customer demand

• Deal structure faces scrutiny amid growing fears that some AI hardware demand is being stoked by circular arrangements, following reports Nvidia had earlier discussed a lease guarantee of as much as $250bn

Source: Bloomberg

Strategists see scope for the long-bond selloff to run further

[8:41 am] The 30-year US Treasury yield sits at a 19-year high, and several strategists argue three forces could push long-dated yields higher still despite softening domestic data.

• Global participation is one driver, with higher JGB yields spilling into US markets and fiscal concerns across the US, Japan, UK and Europe risking a global repricing of borrowing costs

• Fundstrat sees long-term yields pushing to 5.60-5.70% at a quicker pace than normal following a technical breakout

• A too-strong economy is another risk, with Deutsche Bank noting CPI above 3% has historically coincided with more than 100bp of tightening in the first year of hiking cycles

• Heavy supply is a third pressure point, with the latest 30-year auction clearing at its highest yield since 2001 and demand for long-duration debt looking less than robust

Source: CNBC

Japan’s 10-year yield hits three-decade high on inflation and BOJ bets

[8:42 am] Japanese government bond yields climbed as a stalemate in the Middle East stoked inflation worries and firmed expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan rate rise.

• The 10-year JGB yield added 1.5bp to 2.935%, after earlier touching 2.945% for the first time since September 1996

• The 2-year yield, most sensitive to policy expectations, rose 1bp to 1.7%, its highest since May 1995

• The 20-year and 30-year yields rose 2.5bp to 2.935% and 4bp to 4.115% respectively in morning trade

• BOJ commentary has turned increasingly hawkish, with reports the board may pursue more aggressive tightening than to date

Source: Reuters

Memory stocks tumble on WSJ report flagging $3tn in hidden AI commitments

[8:39 am] US memory chip makers sold off sharply as a Wall Street Journal analysis of tech-sector footnotes reignited concerns over the scale of AI-related spending.

• SanDisk fell ~9%, Micron ~7% and Western Digital ~5% as investors rotated out of AI hardware

• The WSJ found nine top tech companies carry roughly $3tn of off-balance-sheet commitments mostly tied to AI, about triple their outstanding leases and long-term borrowings

• Those obligations dwarf the roughly $600bn of traditional capex spent over the past reported year

• The report followed softer-than-expected frontier lab figures, with Anthropic’s annualised revenue run rate at $65bn and OpenAI’s ARR at $40bn, both below privately circulated numbers

• Reuters reported Anthropic is guiding to 2028 revenue of $190-200bn, again short of the most bullish estimates

Source: Yahoo Finance

Global bond yields hit multi-decade highs on fiscal and inflation fears

[8:38 am] Long-dated government bonds sold off worldwide as investors priced in deteriorating fiscal positions, sticky inflation and rising Middle East tensions.

• US 30-year yields hit a fresh 19-year high before easing to 5.285%, with the 10-year at 4.706% and the 2-year at 4.175%

• US fiscal deficit jumped to $432.3bn in July, its highest monthly total since March 2021, taking the year-to-date shortfall to nearly $1.8tn

• Multi-decade highs seen globally with Japan’s 10-year at a 30-year high, Germany’s 30-year the highest since 2011 and France’s 30-year at a post-2008 high

Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are down 24 pts (-0.26%). Here’s what happened overnight:

• Wall Street lower for a third straight session as soaring global bond yields send long-term borrowing costs to highest in decades and oil prices edged higher, weighing on risk-driven pockets of the market like tech

  • S&P 500 (-0.69%), Nasdaq (-1.33%), Dow (-0.22%), Russell 2000 (-1.30%)

• A global long-bond selloff sent the US 30-year to a 19-year high, with Japanese, German and French long yields all hitting multi-decade peaks

• Brent fractionally higher to US$91.34 after Trump ruled out extending the expired Iran memorandum and threatened to bomb Oman over the Strait of Hormuz talks