Bitcoin ETF flows swing to $202M outflow as price holds near $77.5K

Bitcoin traded near $77,500 on Aug. 29 after US spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a nine-session inflow streak, while weakening capital flows and short-term technical signals kept the $76,500–$77,000 support zone in focus.

Bitcoin price holds above $77,000 support

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $77,500 at the time of writing, down 2.9% over the previous 24 hours. The price briefly fell to $77,078 on Aug. 28 before stabilizing above $77,000.

The pullback followed a failed attempt to hold above $80,000. Bitcoin reached an intraday high near $81,200 earlier in the week but faced selling pressure as traders reacted to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole.

On the 4-hour chart, BTC has moved below the Bollinger Band midpoint at $78,815. The upper band sits at $80,639, while the lower band has climbed to $76,992.

The lower band now overlaps with the immediate support zone between $76,500 and $77,000. Holding that area would leave room for another attempt to reclaim $78,000, while a 4-hour close below it could extend the correction.

Bitcoin’s Chaikin Money Flow reading has fallen to -0.14. The move below zero shows that selling pressure has outweighed buying pressure during the latest decline.

Bitcoin ETF inflows reverse after nine sessions

According to Farside Investors, US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $201.9 million in net withdrawals on Aug. 28. The result ended nine consecutive trading sessions of positive flows.

ARK 21Shares’ ARKB led the outflows with $114.9 million, followed by Bitwise’s BITB with $49.7 million. BlackRock’s IBIT lost $33.4 million, while VanEck’s HODL recorded $13.2 million in withdrawals.

Morgan Stanley’s MSBT partly offset those redemptions with a $9.3 million inflow. The other listed funds recorded no net movement.

The change represented a $444.2 million day-over-day swing from the $242.3 million inflow recorded on Aug. 27. However, the ETF group still attracted a combined $924.5 million during the Aug. 24–28 trading week.

The weekly total means that one negative session does not establish a longer institutional exit. Continued outflows during the next US trading sessions would provide stronger evidence that demand has weakened after Bitcoin’s sharp August rally.

Warsh speech adds pressure to risk assets

The ETF reversal came after Warsh said inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s target and described broad financial conditions as difficult to call restrictive.

In his Aug. 28 Jackson Hole speech, Warsh said the Fed’s preferred inflation measure was running at 3.7% over 12 months and 4.1% over six months. Both figures remain above the central bank’s 2% target.

“The Fed’s predominant focus right now should be on prices,” Warsh said.

Warsh added that the central bank must be confident that underlying inflation is returning to its target “clearly and at sufficient speed.” His comments did not commit the Fed to a rate increase, but they reduced expectations for easier monetary policy in the near term.

The policy outlook matters for US Bitcoin investors because higher rates can raise the return available on cash and government debt. Tighter financial conditions can also reduce the amount of capital moving into volatile assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin indicators remain bullish on the daily chart

Bitcoin’s broader daily structure remains stronger than its short-term setup. The daily moving average convergence divergence indicator remains positive, with the MACD line at 3,950.79 and the signal line at 3,256.24.

The histogram remains above zero at 694.55, showing that the August rally has not produced a confirmed daily bearish crossover. However, the declining histogram bars show that upward momentum is slowing.

The daily relative strength index stands at 69.55, just below the overbought threshold of 70. Its RSI-based moving average is higher at 72.68. The retreat from overbought territory supports the possibility of further consolidation before another sustained advance.

A Fibonacci retracement drawn between $126,234 and $57,795 places the 78.6% level at $72,441. Bitcoin remains above that long-term level but below the next major retracement resistance at $83,939.

The chart therefore leaves BTC inside a broad $72,441–$83,939 range. A daily move above $83,939 would strengthen the recovery structure, while a break below $72,441 would weaken the bullish setup.

BTC liquidity builds on both sides of price

The 24-hour CoinGlass liquidation heatmap shows concentrated liquidity above Bitcoin near $78,500–$79,000 and around $80,300–$80,500. Those areas may act as short-term price targets if buyers reclaim control.

A smaller but visible cluster sits below the market around $76,700–$77,000. A move through that liquidity could place the lower technical supports under pressure.

Analyst Sheldon Diedericks said he was looking for a deeper pullback while Bitcoin remained below $84,000. His chart identified a potential buying zone between approximately $73,000 and $74,500 before a recovery attempt.

Trader Eliz offered a similar downside map, saying Bitcoin could recover if the lower range holds. According to the analyst, a break below $75,000–$76,000 could open the way toward $71,000–$72,000, where stronger buying could emerge.

Bitcoin must first reclaim $77,800–$78,000 to reduce the immediate downside pressure. The next resistance sits around $78,800, followed by $79,200–$80,000. A sustained move above $80,000 would weaken the current bearish structure and expose the liquidity near $80,500.

Failure to defend $76,500 would instead place $75,700–$76,000 in view. Below that range, the analyst targets and daily Fibonacci structure converge around $72,000–$74,500, making it the main downside area to watch.