81,700 Bitcoin Options Expire Without A Major Market Shock

On August 28, 81,700 options on bitcoin expire on Deribit. These options have a notional value of $6.44 billion. Indeed, the max pain price was located in the range of $68,000 to $70,000, well below the current bitcoin price. However, this key expiry did not trigger an immediate move towards this level.

The $6.44 Billion Does Not Represent Traded Capital

The 81,700 options expiring today represented about one-fifth of all open positions regarding bitcoin on Deribit. Thus, their notional value reached $6.44 billion.

This amount measures the theoretical value of bitcoin exposure that the contracts provide. However, this does not mean that $6.44 billion changed hands during settlement. A significant portion of options expire worthless if their strike price remains too far from the bitcoin price.

Nearly 62% of contracts related to this expiry could thereby expire worthless, according to analyst Frank Hepworth. The actual settled amount was thus well below the reported notional value.

This operation included 44,639 call options versus 37,061 put options. From this viewpoint, the ratio between the two types of options stood at 0.83. Call options accounted for nearly 55% of contracts, against 45% for put options.

The split may reflect a more optimistic stance as a call option often gains value if the price rises above its strike price. However, it is not a sufficient directional projection. Investors can use these contracts for hedging, selling volatility, or constructing market-neutral strategies.

Bitcoin : Max Pain Prices of $75,000 and $80,000 Concentrate Positions

A large portion of call options clustered around strike prices of $75,000 and $80,000. These two levels represented $236 million and $157 million of notional value respectively, according to provided data.

The two strike prices combined thus $393 million in call options. This sum equals nearly 6.1% of the total expiry’s notional value. Additionally, more than $500 million in positions were within 5% of the main crypto’s price prior to settlement.

This concentration could influence market makers’ hedging activities. Indeed, a dealer specializing in selling call options might buy bitcoin or futures if the price rises, then reduce coverage when it falls. Such adjustments can amplify moves or stabilize the price near a heavily used strike level.

The exact outcome depends on market makers’ net exposure relative to price changes. This measure is called “gamma”. The gross notional does not indicate whether they might buy or sell bitcoin near expiry. It would be excessive to portray the $6.44 billion as an immediate market-moving force.

Overall, derivative product trends favored call options. The weekly Block Scholes report published by Deribit showed a premium awarded to call options for expiries up to 90 days. Funding rates for perpetual contracts were also positive following Bitcoin’s rebound.

Bitcoin Does Not Converge to Its Max Pain Price

The max pain price for this expiry was between $68,000 and $70,000. This level indicates where most options expire worthless, theoretically maximizing losses for contract buyers.

Before settlement, bitcoin traded around $79,000. A correction to $70,000 would require an 11.4% drop. The price would lose approximately 14% to reach the lower $68,000 threshold.

This scenario did not materialize around the expiry. After settlement, bitcoin traded within a daily range of $78,600 to $81,300, according to CoinGecko. It remained about 12% above the max pain price.

This difference indicates max pain price is not a market target. Its calculation is based on open position distribution, without considering option premiums, hedges, closed contracts, or other exchange activities.

Previous major expiries did not systematically trigger sharp drops. For example, a $15 billion expiry in June 2025 caused a limited reaction despite a significant gap between price and max pain price. Similarly, a $13.3 billion expiry last December was absorbed without a proportionate move.

September Expiry Becomes the Next Watchpoint

It will be crucial now for the market to observe how investors rebuild their positions after settlement. September options already represent nearly twice today’s expiry amount.

Strike prices will remain especially important. The first would serve as a coverage zone on a decline, while a sustained stabilization above the second would alter the value of a large portion of still-open call options.

The release of macroeconomic indicators and monetary policy expectations may weigh more heavily than option flows alone. The $6.44 billion expiry mainly reveals growth in the bitcoin derivatives market. The stability observed after settlement confirms that notional value and max pain price alone cannot forecast BTC’s next direction.

Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

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The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.