USD/CAD’s decline from 1.4247 accelerated lower last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.3480 low. On the upside, above 1.3811 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.
In the bigger picture, the pattern from 1.4791 (2025 high) is still extending, with fall from 1.4247 as the third leg. Firm break of 1.3480 will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3480 from 1.4247 at 1.2936. For now, medium term risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.4247 resistance holds, in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in M MACD, fall from 1.4791 could be corrective whole up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low). Firm break of 1.3480 support and sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.3636) will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 55 M EMA will maintain medium term bullishness.
Source link
