EUR/AUD reversed after rebounding to 1.1644 last week, but stays above 1.6250 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 1.6250 will extend the fall from 1.6617 to retest 1.6108 low. On the upside, above 1.6444 will bring another rebound to 1.6503. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.6108 (or 1.6125) could still extend for a while before larger decline resumption.
In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). Sustained trading below 55 M EMA (now at 1.6567) will confirm this bearish case, and pave the way back towards 1.4281.
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