Bitcoin approached a decisive point on August 20, trading near $69,600 after rising 8.2% in 24 hours. It briefly touched $70,000, a level last seen in early June 2026. The 24-hour range of $64,111-$69,997 highlights how quickly sentiment shifted from caution to aggressive buying.
The first trigger came from the US Treasury, which increased certain long-dated bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation from September 9. The second was a wave of short liquidations, with nearly $1.4 billion in crypto short positions liquidated within four hours. While forced buying can drive prices quickly, the rally needs fresh investor money to hold.
ETF flows offer some evidence of renewed demand. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost a combined $385.2 million between August 10 and 14, but attracted $651 million over the next three trading sessions. This included $297.5 million on August 17, $189.3 million on August 18 and $164.2 million on August 19. Total inflows between August 3 and 19 reached approximately $1.13 billion, giving the rally a firmer base than short covering alone.
The key price test is around $68,500, the average purchase price of Bitcoin held by recent investors. Holding above this level could reduce selling pressure from investors seeking to recover their capital. A convincing move above $70,000 could take Bitcoin towards $75,800-$76,000, where another large group of investors may consider selling.
The wider blockchain picture is encouraging but not exuberant. Bitcoin’s average acquisition price across circulating supply is approximately $52,685, leaving the market price about 32% higher. Unrealised losses during the 2026 downturn peaked at about 25% of market value, versus more than 60% during deeper historical declines. This suggests investors have faced pressure, but not the widespread distress typically seen at the end of severe bear markets.
Actual selling behaviour tells a similar story. Investors are currently realising about $0.75 in profits for every $1 in losses. Previous market bottoms have often pushed this figure below $0.50, while recoveries have appeared more secure after it moved above $2. The reading therefore points to an improving market, but not one that has fully emerged from its downturn.
The strength has spread beyond Bitcoin, lifting total crypto market value 8.3% to $2.38 trillion. Ethereum rose 18.6% to about $2,266, while XRP gained 11.5% to $1.11 and Solana advanced 11.2% to $85.28. BNB increased 3.8% to about $626, while TRON added 0.4% to $0.3337. Ethereum’s stronger gain suggests investors are becoming more willing to take risks, although one strong session does not establish a sustained altcoin rally.
The main uncertainty remains interest rates. The US Federal Reserve held its policy range at 3.50%-3.75% in July through a 9-3 vote, with three dissenters favouring a 25-basis-point increase. The next inflation test comes on August 26 with July PCE data, following June headline inflation of 3.7% and core inflation of 3.3%, both above the Fed’s 2% target.
Markets will also watch the Jackson Hole symposium on August 27-29, the US employment report on September 4, CPI inflation on September 11 and the next Fed decision on September 16. Renewed inflation or higher bond yields could test a Bitcoin rally that has benefited from easier financial conditions.
Our advice: The August 20 move improves the outlook but does not justify chasing an 8.2% daily rise. Staggered purchases, smaller positions and close attention to the $68,500 level offer a more measured approach while the market determines whether $70,000 is a genuine breakout or another temporary ceiling.
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