Investing.com — Bank of America upgraded Moderna to Neutral with a $170 price objective, following a sharp rally in the stock after positive data on its personalized cancer vaccine, intismeran, in adjuvant melanoma.
Moderna shares jumped 177% on Wednesday after the readout, compared with a 4.5% move in the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index. BofA analyst Alec Stranahan called the data “a watershed moment for Moderna,” saying it effectively allows the company to diversify away from infectious disease and potentially eases persistent capital overhangs.
“We see the setup as fundamentally improved versus 12 months ago, with room to run in both infectious disease and oncology, although the debates around label expansions and market uptake remain,” Stranahan wrote. He noted that a clear benefit, which he estimates as a hazard ratio of 0.6-0.7, at an upcoming medical meeting, likely ESMO, would be needed to turn more positive.
Key questions remain about how much better the intismeran-Keytruda combination performs versus Keytruda alone. Recent checks with key opinion leaders suggest a hazard ratio of at least 0.8 on recurrence-free survival could be sufficient to support use, according to Stranahan. Stranahan also expects adjuvant melanoma represents the easiest tumor type for showing a benefit, compared with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) or lung cancer.
The analyst said a positive readout in RCC over the next six months would derisk broader tumor expansion, while intismeran could also expand Keytruda into previously untapped patient subgroups, such as PD-L1 negative, Stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), though this remains data-dependent.
Beyond oncology, BofA’s channel checks with payors suggest mFlusiva could begin being used and reimbursed this fall, while mCombriax’s approval in the EU could provide a tailwind from 2027 onward as COVID-era contracts expire. Downside risks include gaps in the upcoming data presentation or slow commercial uptake.
The bank raised its unadjusted global peak sales estimate for intismeran to $54 billion, driving the increase in its price objective to $170. It increased its assumed peak market share and probability of success in adjuvant melanoma to 60% and 85%, respectively, alongside higher peak share assumptions in adjuvant RCC, NSCLC, and other indications.
BofA also raised its assumed price point for intismeran to $260,000 to better reflect recent oncology launches, and lifted its seasonal flu peak share assumptions.
Key model assumptions include pull-through utilization from Keytruda and a 20% negative terminal value after 2041. Moderna shares 50% of intismeran’s economics with Merck.
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