A top Russian banker has been sacked after telling a public meeting that Russia is losing the “war of attrition” in Ukraine.
Andrei Klepach, the chief economist at state-owned lender Vnesheconombank (VEB), was reportedly fired after the bank’s bosses received a “call from above”, according to independent Russian news site The Bell.
Mr Klepach had told a meeting at the Moscow Exchange’s Nikitsky Club that the war’s effect on Russia’s economy risked plunging the country into a “social crisis”.
“We’re falling behind,” Mr Klepach said, according to remarks first reported by The Moscow Times. “We’re losing both the technological and economic competition globally. We’re losing not only to China and the US, but in some ways, we’re losing to Ukraine.”
He added that while the Ukrainian economy was “partially destroyed”, it had continued to endure.
“In this war of attrition, we will not win the competition,” he said. “We’re under the illusion that everything [in Ukraine] will collapse. It hasn’t, and it won’t. Meanwhile, the costs we bear are mounting.”
These costs included rising inequality, deteriorating healthcare, and “uneven development” in science and technology.
“A social crisis could emerge, and when no one particularly expects it. But let me remind you, no one expected the February Revolution either,” he said, referring to the Communist uprising of 1917.
“I don’t believe Russia will collapse, but I’m almost certain that we’ll end up in a social crisis.”
His remarks, which were delivered in May but first reported in the weekend, clash with the Kremlin’s official stance on the state of the Russian economy.
Vladimir Putin has refused to acknowledge Russia’s lack of progress in the war, nor its increasing toll on the country’s financial health.
Official data released last week suggested Russia’s gross domestic product expanded 1.3pc in the second quarter from a year earlier, up from a 0.2pc contraction in the first three months of the year.
But Liam Peach, a Capital Economics analyst, said in a note that Russia’s economy was likely to “stagnate for the foreseeable future”.
The country is grappling with fuel shortages triggered by Ukrainian drone attacks, which have targeted Russian refineries.
The economy is surviving on higher global oil prices driven by the war with Iran and heavy spending on manufacturing weapons.
Mr Klepach said while Ukraine was suffering a “demographic disaster”, it was “despite everything, surviving” – largely because of Western financial aid.
The economist is a high-profile, influential figure in Russian economic circles. Before joining VEB in 2014, he was a senior official at Russia’s economic development ministry, rising to deputy minister in 2008.
The Telegraph has contacted VEB for comment.
