Inflation: Projected Deceleration Below 2% and the Government Could Regain Its Floor

The Government may have some relief regarding the increase in inflation for August. After interrupting a downward trend in July (2.1%) that lasted for the last three months, the price increase that will be announced on September 10 is expected to fall back below the 2% barrier. The more optimistic forecasts place it at 1.4% or 1.5%, which would match the growth of the CPI with May 2025, the best index for Javier Milei since he took office.

The consultancy that presented this figure is EcoGo, which attributes the deceleration to a drop in food and beverage prices (1.1%), which behaved steadily at the end of the month. A similar forecast was made by C&T Advisors, which set the inflation for August at 1.6%, due to a higher measurement in groceries (1.9%) linked to a spike in fruit and vegetable costs.

Meanwhile, Analytica recorded comparable variations in food and beverage prices and inflation, establishing them at 1.7%, with a strong increase in vegetables (4.8%) and the bread and cereals category (2.2%). A tenth more was the result of Abeceb’s measurement (1.8%), despite significant increases in transportation (10% for trains and 4% for buses) and water (3%).

The lowest point was marked by the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, which measured 1.4%, explaining that “after the seasonal effects of the winter holidays in July, our estimate of the CPI for August predicts a pronounced decrease in inflation.” Finally, LCG projected an increase of 1.9% with a slight rise in groceries (0.8% for the entire month), which includes the stability of meats and decreases in dairy products.

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, food and beverage imports reached $2.293 billion in 2025, representing an increase of 56.5% compared to $1.465 billion in 2024. However, the trend showed some moderation this year. According to information provided by the Coordinator of Food Product Industries (COPAL), during the first half of 2026, sector imports fell by 2.6% year-on-year. The entity emphasizes that purchases from abroad are part of the productive matrix of the food industry. “Imports in the sector are also concentrated mainly in areas where Argentina does not produce or does so in a limited way, such as cocoa, coffee, certain fruits, or specific inputs necessary for production,” COPAL explained. At the same time, the sector maintains a strong positive balance in its foreign trade. On an annual average, for every dollar it imports, it exports approximately $15, with a net foreign exchange contribution close to $30 billion. In this context, the growth of imports must also be put into perspective. Products from abroad represent about 10% of the total supply, so they continue to be a minority portion of the market. The largest growth was observed in dairy products (milk, cheese, butter, and dulce de leche), pantry items (pasta, baked goods, cookies), and also in cold cuts. In some cases, competition with imported foods has led to a price reduction, for example, in pasta.