North Carolina vs TCU Horned Frogs best bet: Why Bill Belichick’s Tar Heels are live underdogs in Week 0

With all due respect to the FCS schools that played earlier this week, the real college football season kicks off when the North Carolina Tar Heels meet the TCU Horned Frogs at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland, in Week 0 Saturday, Aug. 29, at noon ET. 

UNC head coach Bill Belichick’s first season in Chapel Hill was an absolute disaster. It started with an embarrassing 48-14 loss to TCU in their season openers last year. The Tar Heels finished 4-8 last season, while the Horned Frogs went 9-4 and upset USC 30-27 in the Alamo Bowl.

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North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick on the sidelines in the first quarter at Kenan Stadium on Sept. 1, 2025. (Bob Donnan/Imagn Images)

According to ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly, North Carolina ranks 103rd nationally out of 138 schools in returning production from last year’s team, and TCU ranks 69th.

Let’s break down Tar Heels-Horned Frogs and discuss the best way to bet this game. 

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. TCU Horned Frogs odds (BetMGM) 

• Moneyline: North Carolina (+275) | TCU (-350)
• Spread: Tar Heels +9 (-110) | Horned Frogs -9 (-110)
• Total — 46.5 — Over (-108) | Under (-112)

I understand he’s old and dating a woman 40+ years younger than him, and it weirds people out, but Belichick still knows football. He has to. He’s a six-time Super Bowl champion and the greatest football coach ever.

Plus, UNC recruited much more talent this year in Belichick’s first full recruiting cycle. The Tar Heels went from 35th in 247Sports.com’s 2025 recruiting rankings to 17th this season.

Per college football analyst Phil Steele, 31 of their signees were “in for spring,” and Belichick got to coach these kids up more this offseason. Meanwhile, TCU’S 2026 recruiting class is ranked 44th, and none of its signees were “in for spring”.

Josh Hoover #10 of the TCU Horned Frogs drops back to pass during the first half of the game against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Kenan Stadium on Sept. 1, 2025 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

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Also, the Horned Frogs are replacing former QB Josh Hoover, who went to play for Curt Cignetti and the reigning champion Indiana Hoosiers, and former WR Eric McAlister. Hoover threw for the third-most yards in school history from 2022-25, and McAlister led the team in catches (72), receiving yards (1,190) and touchdowns (10) last season.

That said, I trust Belichick can build a better defense in an offseason more than Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes replacing Hoover. To be fair, I’m lukewarm on receivers’ impact on winning and losing, so I don’t care about McAlister no longer being on the team that much.

Both teams have transfer quarterbacks. The Tar Heels brought in QB Billy Edwards from Wisconsin after he missed most of last season with an injury. Edwards started 11 games for Maryland in 2024, completing 65.0% of his passes for 2,881 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions. 

First-year Horned Frogs QB Jaden Craig transferred from Harvard, where he set the school record for most passing yards. Going from FCS competition to a Belichick-coached defense, where he has had all offseason to teach his scheme to the players he recruited, is a big jump for Craig.

Head coach Bill Belichick of the North Carolina Tar Heels reacts during the first half of the game against the TCU Horned Frogs at Kenan Stadium on Sept. 1, 2025 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

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Furthermore, North Carolina ranks 31st in team talent, according to 247Sports.com, and TCU ranks 40th. So, the Horned Frogs have worse talent and less continuity. 

This game is in Ireland, and I like backing the better coaches in these international games. There are more media obligations, and it’s a challenge keeping players focused on a business trip in a foreign country. Again, I trust Belichick more in this situation than Dykes.

Prediction: North Carolina 27, TCU 20 

For the record, I’m risking 1.1 units (u) on the Tar Heels +9 (-110) and another 0.5u on their +275 moneyline. 

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