Bitcoin Pulls Away from Tech Stocks and Slides Closer to Gold

Bitcoin has clearly played its card well these past weeks. Yet nothing is decided yet. This surge is accompanied by a striking closeness with gold. Everything can still change in the next few days. The awaited speech at Jackson Hole weighs heavily.

August delivered a clear win for bitcoin over gold and the big indexes

August 2026 will undoubtedly remain a unique month. The bitcoin price climbed 26%. Gold advanced by 13.8%. The Nasdaq gained 4.8% and the S&P 500 only 3.2%. That’s not the most interesting part. The 30-day correlation between bitcoin and gold reached +0.81.

At the same time, its link with the Dollar Index fell to -0.86. In other words, bitcoin behaves less and less like a traditional risky asset. It is beginning to act as a store of value. CoinDesk states it bluntly: bitcoin outperforms gold, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and other major asset classes just when it matters most.

This change comes as long bond yields touched levels not seen since 2007. The Treasury reacted by announcing buybacks. But the question remains open. Is this a real status change or just a market movement?

Bitcoin and gold are moving in lockstep — and the market has noticed

A +0.81 correlation between bitcoin and gold is no longer coincidence. The two assets now respond to the same logic. Investors seek protection against dollar devaluation. The famous “debasement trade” is clearly at work. 

American debt flirts with 40 trillion dollars. Deficits are not shrinking. Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity summed up the mood well:

The market perceives a slippery slope towards fiscal dominance and a potential loss of Fed independence. The assumption is that to keep yields contained, the Treasury will have to significantly increase the size of buybacks.

Jurrien Timmer, X

As a result, people buy gold. They also buy bitcoin. For the same reasons. Bitcoin is no longer seen merely as a speculative bet. It is gradually earning its stripes as a non-sovereign store of value. It remains to be seen if this trend will hold over time.

Treasury already acted. Now all eyes turn to the Fed

On August 19, Scott Bessent announced the doubling of long bond buybacks. Each operation now amounts to 4 billion dollars. Bitcoin went from 64,000 dollars to nearly 80,000 in one week. Gold also reacted.

Be careful though: this program is not quantitative easing. It does not inject new liquidity. Debt remains enormous. Markets therefore anticipate that the Fed might be forced to intervene sooner or later. 

Crypto Rover summed up the scenarios quite bluntly: “DOVISH → MARKETS RISE / HAWKISH → MARKETS FALL / SILENT → MARKETS CONSOLIDATE.” Pressure on Kevin Warsh is real. Has the Treasury opened something it no longer fully controls? We will probably know on Friday.

One speech from Warsh could decide whether this rally lives or dies

Kevin Warsh will speak at Jackson Hole on August 28 for his first major speech as Fed chairman. Markets are especially watching for a possible signal on coordination with the Treasury. 

A more dovish tone could further support bitcoin and gold. A very firm speech on central bank independence might instead push yields and the dollar higher. In that case, bitcoin and gold could suffer. 

Analysts at BNY Mellon do not necessarily expect very precise announcements. Warsh has so far spoken little and guided markets sparingly. But the pressure is real. Part of the bullish scenario is already priced in. Will he confirm expectations or quickly calm them? We will know very soon.

Key figures of the moment

• BTC price at the time of writing: 77,406 dollars
• Bitcoin increase in August: 26%
• Bitcoin-gold 30-day correlation: +0.81
• Gold’s progress over the period: 13.8%
• Amount of buybacks announced by the Treasury: 4 billion per operation

American budget tensions profoundly modify the reading of the gold-dollar pair in 2026. Gold retains its status as a reference safe haven. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is increasingly approaching that status. Traders now have a strong incentive to integrate this new reality into their analysis.

Mikaia A.

La révolution blockchain et crypto est en marche ! Et le jour où les impacts se feront ressentir sur l’économie la plus vulnérable de ce Monde, contre toute espérance, je dirai que j’y étais pour quelque chose

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The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.