Bitcoin Tops $81,000 for First Time in Three Months as Bets Build on U.S. Treasury TGA Deployment — BigGo Finance

Bitcoin (BTC) broke above $81,000 on August 25 for the first time in three months. Risk appetite strengthened rapidly following reports that the U.S. Treasury Department is considering using a portion of its roughly $950 billion in government cash holdings for Treasury buybacks. The cryptocurrency has surged nearly 30% since the announcement of liquidity support measures for long-term bonds.

CNBC reported Monday, citing two senior Treasury officials, that the department may tap funds held in the Treasury General Account (TGA) to finance U.S. Treasury buybacks. According to Treasury fiscal data released as of August 21, the TGA balance stood at approximately $933.2 billion (about ¥148.6 trillion), providing additional capacity to support the Treasury market without issuing new short-term bills.

The Treasury had previously announced plans to double the per-auction purchase cap for liquidity-support buybacks of long-term coupon-bearing Treasuries from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 through November 4. Market participants increasingly view additional government liquidity supply as a tailwind for speculative assets like cryptocurrencies.

Druckenmiller Calls It “Artificial Yield Suppression”

Meanwhile, the Treasury’s interventionist stance has drawn criticism from prominent investors. In an op-ed for a U.S. newspaper, Stanley Druckenmiller argued that if a 5.5% yield is needed to attract buyers for 30-year Treasuries, that should be interpreted as a signal from fiscal conditions rather than a crisis requiring intervention. “With artificial yield suppression, every single basis point becomes a subsidy for kicking the can down the road,” he wrote.

That said, the immediate impact of the TGA deployment proposal on the dollar was limited, as officials have not provided specific guidance on how much or when government cash reserves would be deployed. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose about 0.2% on Monday to trade near 99.0. Global currency markets treated the proposal as still in the speculative stage.

Derivatives Trading Surges as Short Liquidations Mount

Speculators priced in expectations of additional Treasury intervention, driving active trading in BTC derivatives markets on Monday. The move was compounded by the U.S. government intensifying economic pressure on Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced “Operation Economic Outcast,” expanding sanctions on Iran and organizations supporting its economy. According to Bessent, the objective is to sever Iran’s remaining economic lifelines, warning that organizations facilitating Iranian financial activity could face exclusion from the dollar-based financial system.

BTC futures trading volume jumped 57.83% to $97.43 billion (about ¥15.5 trillion), while open interest rose 4.66% to $58.04 billion (about ¥9.2 trillion). The fact that volume growth far outpaced open interest indicates that significant position adjustments occurred during the rally, while outstanding leverage did not increase to the same degree.

Options market activity was even more pronounced, with BTC options trading volume surging 156.44% to $7.34 billion (about ¥1.2 trillion), and open interest rising 3.73% to $41.09 billion (about ¥6.5 trillion).

Note: Data as of Monday, August 24, 2026. Of total liquidations, short liquidations were $106.35 million and long liquidations were $57.71 million.

The breakout toward $80,000 forced a substantial unwinding of short positions. Total BTC liquidations over 24 hours reached $164.07 million (about ¥26 billion), with short liquidations accounting for roughly 65%. Notably, the 24-hour long-short ratio stood at 1.0056, nearly balanced, suggesting that despite the predominance of short liquidations, the rally was primarily supported by spot buying.

RSI at 83.9 Signals Overbought Conditions, Yet Spot Buying Persists

As of August 25, BTC has risen nearly 30% over nine trading sessions. On the daily chart, the 20-day Bollinger Band midline sits near $68,300, while the current price is approaching the upper band at $81,200. When price approaches the upper band amid rising volume, the probability of trend continuation increases.

A more pressing concern is the 14-day RSI, which has climbed to 83.9 against an average reading of 63.90. An RSI above 70 generally indicates overbought conditions. Given the balanced positioning in derivatives markets, the RSI above 70 may indicate that high-conviction spot buying is continuing despite mounting unrealized gains.

If BTC can consolidate stably near the Bollinger Band upper boundary around $81,000, a move toward year-to-date highs comes into view. BTC began trading on January 1 at approximately $87,500. Conversely, if upside is capped near $80,000, a pullback toward the 20-day moving average midline at $68,300 becomes more likely.

Market prediction platforms currently estimate a 68% probability that BTC reaches $85,000 by the end of 2026.